Military Spending Monitor
Resource Type: Factsheet
Netanyahu’s Dangerous Plans Advance Amid U.S. Visit
War crimes and crimes against humanity continue in Gaza without a workable ceasefire:
- Dozens of civilians in Gaza continue to be killed by Israeli forces almost every day, both by ongoing bombings and near “Gaza Humanitarian Foundation” aid distribution sites, around which mass deaths have become so routine, they have been dubbed “killing fields” for Palestinians seeking food amid starvation caused by months of near-total blockade on aid.
- Netanyahu continues to reject proposals that would allow experienced humanitarian aid agencies to resume essential aid delivery or commit Israel to steps toward a permanent ceasefire, while he and Trump advance plans to relocate Palestinian civilians from Gaza that constitute the crime against humanity of forced displacement – i.e., ethnic cleansing.
- Trump continues to arm and abet Israel’s war crimes with new shipments of U.S. weapons, in violation of both international humanitarian law and U.S. law.
Advancing Israeli war crimes in the West Bank threaten to further destabilize the Middle East:
- Israeli settlers backed by U.S.-armed Israeli forces have increased violent attacks against Palestinian communities in the occupied West Bank, with deadly incidents rightly being likened to “pogroms” against civilians who Israel is obligated by international law to protect.
- Settler attacks are part of an accelerating campaign of forced displacement that also involves Israel bulldozing Palestinian communities and removing their residents from their land.
- Ministers and senior lawmakers from Netanyahu’s own Likud party are pushing the Prime Minister to officially annex the West Bank, with the Trump administration saying it “stands with Israel and its decisions” when asked about possible annexation of the occupied territory.
Iran’s nuclear activities unleashed and unmonitored as hawks pivot to push for more war:
- While Trump continues to say that last month’s U.S. attack on Iran “obliterated” its nuclear program, it is clear the strikes did not destroy the program, and have not only set it back by far less than the 2015 Iran Deal, but likely further incentivized Iran to seek nuclear weapons.
- In a widely predicted move, the Israeli government and war hawks are already floating the idea that additional military action is needed to address Iran’s nuclear activities, raising the possibility of further U.S. involvement in hostilities that could become another major conflict.
- Diplomacy toward a new agreement to limit Iran’s nuclear activities will only succeed if Trump avoids making maximalist demands – like insisting on zero uranium enrichment in Iran – based on the mistaken notion that he destroyed Iran’s program, rather than further incentivized a dash for nuclear weapons by the regime.
Trump’s Validation of the Iran Deal is Now Complete
Iran’s paths to a bomb were blocked under the JCPOA and cleared after Trump broke it:
- Under the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on Iran’s nuclear activities (the “JCPOA” or “Iran Deal”), Iran had less than enough low enriched uranium than that needed for a single nuclear weapon, if further enriched. It had no highly enriched uranium (HEU) and its nuclear sites and entire uranium production cycle were subject to 24/7/365 monitoring and other stringent safeguards overseen by international inspectors.
- After Trump unilaterally broke the deal in May 2018, Iran responded by gradually suspending its compliance with certain JCPOA obligations, eventually amassing a large stockpile of enriched uranium, including enough HEU for several nuclear weapons, if further enriched. The visibility of international inspectors into Iran’s nuclear work diminished significantly as monitoring equipment was shut off and other verification measures were suspended.
- Alongside its nuclear activities, Iran’s ballistic missile program, abuse of human rights, and support for militias and violent acts in the region – including attacks against U.S. servicemembers – also surged following Trump’s abrogation of the JCPOA.
Military strikes on Iran set back Iran’s nuclear program by far less than the Iran deal:
- Despite Trump’s claims that the U.S. attacks on Iranian nuclear sites “completely totally obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program, early U.S. intelligence reportedly assessed that the use of about half of the total U.S. arsenal of the largest “bunker buster” massive ordnance penetrators failed to collapse the key underground buildings at the sites, setting the program back by only a few months – far less than the 12-18 months breakout time under the JCPOA.
- Even more concerning is the fact that the Trump Administration says it does not know where Iran’s stockpile of several nuclear weapons worth of HEU is now.
- These results are especially troubling given official U.S. intelligence assessments that, while Iran had not made the decision to build nuclear weapons prior to the attacks, U.S. strikes against its nuclear facilities may lead the regime to decide to construct nuclear weapons.
Diplomacy is the only viable way forward:
- Diplomacy proved successful in blocking Iran’s paths to a nuclear weapon before and can be again, if given time and space to succeed, whereas military action has now reportedly failed.
- Diplomacy can only succeed if Trump avoids making maximalist demands – like insisting on zero uranium enrichment in Iran – based on the mistaken notion that he destroyed Iran’s program, rather than further incentivized a dash for a nuclear weapon by the regime.
- U.S. lawmakers should vocally support diplomacy and avoid rhetoric or actions that make achievement of an agreement less likely – such as insisting on maximalist terms for a deal.
Growing Consensus on Israel’s Atrocities in Gaza
Top human rights experts and organizations around the world have identified many of Israel’s actions in Gaza–alongside hostage-taking and other atrocities committed in the Hamas-led attack on October 7, 2023–as war crimes or crimes against humanity for more than a year. In March, Israel broke a ceasefire that had lasted for six weeks by instituting a total siege and resuming its bombardment of the territory, while expressly adopting U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposed objective of permanently displacing much of Gaza’s population. In recent months, the number of prominent leaders, scholars, and institutions concluding that Israel is committing some of the most serious violations of international law has grown considerably.
- Citing “the indiscriminate, limitless, cruel and criminal killing of civilians” and “starving out Gaza,” former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert writes in an op-ed that “Yes, Israel is committing war crimes.”
- Even before the short-lived ceasefire and resumption of hostilities earlier this year, hawkish former Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon accused Israel of committing war crimes and ethnic cleansing in late 2024.
- 1,300 academics from universities and colleges across Israel signed a letter denouncing “a horrifying litany of war crimes and even crimes against humanity” in the Gaza war.
- While not yet determining whether a genocide has occurred in Gaza, the International Court of Justice issued a January 2024 interim judgment in the genocide case brought by South Africa against Israel, stating the facts were sufficient to conclude that at least some Palestinian rights under the Genocide Convention are plausible and at risk of irreparable harm.
- Prominent human rights organizations Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, and the University Network for Human Rights – including experts at Boston University, Cornell, and Yale – have determined Israel is committing genocide in Gaza.
- Top genocide scholars like International Association of Genocide Scholars President Melanie O’Brien, Journal of Genocide Research Senior Editor Dirk Moses, and “What is Genocide” author Martin Shaw say a genocide is taking place in Gaza.
- Prominent Israel experts identifying a genocide in Gaza include Omer Bartov, Daniel Blatman, Amos Goldberg, Lee Mordechai, and Raz Segal, with Shmuel Lederman calling it the “consensus” view among genocide researchers.
What Can be Done in Response to Israel’s Atrocities in Gaza:
- Countries should immediately halt the sale and transfer of the weapons Israel is using to commit atrocities.
- All actors should advocate for the distribution of aid and services by experienced humanitarian organizations, rather than the U.S.-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation’s (GHF) militarized dispersal of aid in violation of the principles of humanity, neutrality, and independence.
- Israel should be pressed to end not just the deeply flawed GHF mechanism, but its restrictions on the operations of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency–the UN specialized agency tasked with providing for the basic needs and services of Palestinian refugees, including in Gaza–which is essential to ensuring an end to the urgent humanitarian crisis.
- Countries that are States Parties to the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court (ICC) should publicly acknowledge the legitimacy of–and commit to enforcing–the arrest warrants issued by the judges of the ICC Pre-Trial Chamber against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant.
- Governments should impose their own sanctions on Israeli officials and senior commanders responsible for atrocities and other unlawful conduct in Gaza or the West Bank.
- Beyond halting arms sales and sanctioning specific Israeli officials, countries should exercise their rights to suspend non-humanitarian forms of cooperation with Israel, including privileged trade and other economic arrangements.
- Countries seeking to counter the Trump-Netanyahu plan for the full takeover of Gaza and the permanent displacement of its civilians should work to achieve consensus around steps for the administration and reconstruction of Gaza for the benefit of Palestinians, with the backing of generous international assistance.
- Countries that have yet to do so should finally recognize Palestinian statehood. While a comprehensive, permanent resolution to their conflict can only be agreed between Israelis and Palestinians themselves, the open execution of Israel’s plan to displace Gaza’s population demands that other actors urgently do what they can to “lock in” Palestinian sovereignty and territorial integrity to help balance bargaining power and protect civilians in both nations.
Israeli Government Ramps Up Moves Against US. Law and Interests
With the attention of many in the United States understandably focused on the upcoming election, the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has taken a number of significant steps in the past week directly counter to U.S. law and interests:
• Israel continues its bombardment of structures sheltering displaced civilians in Gaza, including a strike earlier this week that reportedly killed dozens of women and children, which the State Department called “a horrifying incident with a horrifying result.” As civilian casualties continue to mount, a new report reveals that the State Department has received nearly 500 complaints alleging Israel used U.S.-supplied weapons for attacks that caused unnecessary harm to civilians in Gaza, but that the administration “has failed to comply with its own policies requiring swift investigations of such claims,” at least some of which “probably amount to violations of U.S. and international law.”
• Aid to Gaza has reached its lowest level since the war began more than one year ago, despite the explicit demand of Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin in their October 13 letter that Israel “surge all forms of humanitarian assistance” in the territory and “end isolation of northern Gaza” immediately. Per news reports, “Humanitarian officials say conditions have deteriorated still further since the leaked letter was sent two weeks ago, with aid entering Gaza at a lower rate in October than in any month since the start of the war a year ago” and that aid arrivals “represent a fraction of the quantities demanded by the U.S.”
• As the humanitarian situation in Gaza deteriorates, the Israeli Knesset passed two bills that would function to block UNRWA (the UN relief agency tasked with meeting the essential needs of Palestinian refugees) from operating in Gaza and the West Bank. Secretaries Blinken and Austin had warned against this move in their October 13 letter, writing that the bills’ implementation “would devastate the Gaza humanitarian response at this critical moment…which could have implications under relevant U.S. law and policy” – an apparent reference, inter alia, to the Humanitarian Aid Corridor Act, which prohibits security assistance to countries that restrict delivery of U.S. humanitarian aid.
• As the humanitarian situation in Gaza deteriorates, the Israeli Knesset passed two bills that would function to block UNRWA (the UN relief agency tasked with meeting the essential needs of Palestinian refugees) from operating in Gaza and the West Bank. Secretaries Blinken and Austin had warned against this move in their October 13 letter, writing that the bills’ implementation “would devastate the Gaza humanitarian response at this critical moment…which could have implications under relevant U.S. law and policy” – an apparent reference, inter alia, to the Humanitarian Aid Corridor Act, which prohibits security assistance to countries that restrict delivery of U.S. humanitarian aid.
• The Knesset also passed a bill aimed at preventing the reopening of a U.S. consulate to serve Palestinians in Jerusalem in defiance of a foreign policy objective of the Biden-Harris administration, which has pledged to undo the Trump administration’s closure of the mission. The move amends Israel’s Basic Law to prohibit any country from establishing a new diplomatic mission other than an embassy to Israel in Jerusalem, with its backers expressly stating that its goal is “to stop an American attempt to establish a consulate for Palestinians in East Jerusalem.”
Comparing US and EU Security Assistance to Ukraine
U.S. Security Partnership and the Protection of Civilians: The Case of Mali and the Malian Armed Forces
The Cost of U.S. Security Assistance to Ukraine
U.S. Security Force Assistance Command
U.S. Security Partnership and the Protection of Civilians: The Case of Nigeria and the Nigerian Armed Forces
About the Issue Brief
This issue brief is a collaboration between Brown University’s Center for Human Rights and Humanitarian Studies (CHRHS), the Security Assistance Monitor (SAM) at the Center for International Policy, and InterAction. It provides an overview of key facts, data, and analysis of issues related to U.S. security cooperation with the Government of Nigeria in the context of ongoing civilian protection, civilian harm, and humanitarian concerns. It is the second in a series of issue briefs examining protection of civilian issues in geographies where the United States is a significant external security partner.
The collaborators on this project have endeavored to provide data-driven and fact-based information on the nature of U.S. security cooperation with Nigeria and current trends in civilian harm in the country. The information presented here does not necessarily represent the institutional views of the contributing organizations.