Region: Middle East and North Africa

The Bottom Line: Are the US and Israel creating a ‘new world order’ in the Middle East?

Last week, CIP Executive Vice President Matt Duss published “Joe Biden Chose This Catastrophic Path Every Step of the Way” in the New Republic , offering a clear indictment of how specific US policy choices made in response to the October 7, 2023 attack by Hamas on Israel have led to unrelenting tragedy in Gaza and Israel’s expanded war with its neighbors. 

On Al Jazeera’s The Bottom Line, host Steve Clemons interviewed Duss about the piece, about the response of Middle Eastern autocracies, and about what US support for Israel’s war means in terms of democratic politics and the 2024 elections.

Here’s Matt Duss on the disconnect between Biden’s language and actions:

We have a policy and this goes back a long time, but it’s far worse now. By upholding Israeli impunity and essentially enforcing Palestinian homelessness, we have affirmed and supported the worst, most hardline elements in all of these societies. And I think that is exactly what we’re seeing now: this idea that Israel is just going to move kind of like Michael Corleone at the end of Godfather and settle all family business. We know how that ultimately ended, okay? It did not end well for Corleone or anyone. But I’ll also say we saw exactly this back in the early 1980s when Israel decided, well we’re going to take out our enemies in Lebanon, tried to take out the PLO leadership and deal with family business then. And what happened ? Well one thing that happened is the rise of Hezbollah. So my concern is what comes next, what is going to arise in the wake of this catastrophe that the United States and Israel have been cooperating to inflict on this region.

On the US reaction to Israel’s geographic expansion of its military offensive:

Over the past few weeks, in the wake of the strikes on Lebanon, the assassination of [Hassan] Nasrallah, the decapitation of Hezbollah’s leadership and the incursion into Lebanon basically after the proposed ceasefire agreement President Biden saying I hope I expect we’re about to get a ceasefire in Lebanon and then Netanyahu said nope, gonna kill all of Hezbollah’s leaders and invade Lebanon instead. 

Since that time, the US posture seems to have changed and basically Biden seems to be just riding this war down like Slim Pickens in Doctor Strangelove. Even the statement that came out, the readout of the call between Netanyahu and Biden made no mention of a ceasefire in Lebanon. They have completely dropped that. 

And I’m really concerned that there does seem to be – there’s clearly a sense in Washington like this sense of exaltation that is just dangerously and terrifyingly reminiscent of the leadup to the Iraq War, this sense that by dint of our enormous power or Israel’s enormous military power, we’re essentially going to reshuffle the deck in the Middle East and kind of rearrange …the security arrangement in the Middle East in a way that’s more beneficial to us. And it’s really kind of staggering for those of us who lived through that. That we would have to relearn this lesson. It will not work. 

Israel clearly has enormous capabilities, they’ve scored a number of very, very impressive tactical victories. I don’t think anyone could deny that. But what we’ve seen year after year, decade after decade in that region is that both the United States and Israel have utterly failed to turn these tactical victories into strategic wins. And that is what we still have yet to see from either the US or Israel is any explanation of how this ends.

Watch Duss on Al Jazeera below 

The New Republic: Joe Biden Chose This Catastrophic Path Every Step of the Way

One year into the devastating conflict that began with the Hamas-led invasion into southern Israel followed by a devastating assault in Gaza and beyond, hostages remain in captivity, violence and instability have devastated the region with no end in sight. Even as the conflict expands beyond Gaza and into Lebanon and possibly Iran, the U.S. remains committed to backing Israel and supplying it with weapons. Today in The New Republic, Matt Duss outlines how we got to this grim anniversary, following President Biden’s unwavering commitment to an Israeli prime minister willing to take him for all he’s worth.

Writes Matt Duss: 

By taking the option of suspending military aid off the table, Biden signaled from the outset that his red lines were meaningless. His stubborn refusal to impose any costs on Netanyahu (except for a token suspension of a few shipments of bombs that was quickly superseded by massive deliveries of new weapons) is what all but ensured that his May cease-fire proposal would wither and die. The story that is now being crafted through friendly journalists is that Biden tried his best but his effort to bring the war to an end was ultimately frustrated by Netanyahu’s shenanigans. But Biden wasn’t hoodwinked by Netanyahu any more than he was by George W. Bush when he chose to back the Iraq War. He chose this path, and stayed on it despite constant warnings of exactly where it was leading. Having done so, when he exits the White House, he and his team will leave this world a more dangerous and lawless place, America’s credibility more broken, the so-called “rules-based order” even more “so-called” than when he entered.

Read the full piece at The New Republic.

When Pagers Became Bombs: The New Reality of Psychological Warfare 

Janet Abou-Elias is a research fellow at the Center for International Policy and co-founder of Women for Weapons Trade Transparency.

The Lebanese Health Ministry announced Wednesday that the death toll from Israeli attacks on Lebanon has risen to 2,119, with another 10,019 since October 8, 2023. At least 50 paramedics have been killed in Lebanon over the last three weeks. With over a million people – a fifth of the population – displaced by Israeli bombings of Beirut and Southern Lebanon and ongoing ground invasion, the existing humanitarian crisis has deepened. This latest surge of violence, coupled with covert operations like the pager and walkie talkie explosions, threatens to further destabilize the country.

The pager and walkie talkie explosions, unprecedented in scope, have raised serious questions about the involvement of Israel’s military apparatus in covert operations, especially in the context of its ongoing assault on Gaza. This is no ordinary cyber attack– reports suggest these explosions stem from a covert supply chain infiltration rather than software manipulation, marking a significant escalation in an already volatile situation. According to the Lebanese Health Ministry, the pager explosions killed twelve people, including a ten-year-old girl and a young boy, and injured thousands. Just days later, a wave of walkie talkie explosions killed 20 and left 450 people injured.

Sources indicate that the affected pagers were recently acquired by Hezbollah in a new shipment from Taiwan-based electronic manufacturer Gold Apollo. The Lebanese government spokesman said Israel is responsible for the pager explosions, deeming it a violation of Lebanese sovereignty. If this is correct, it points to an operation in which the IDF targeted essential communication equipment at the procurement level, thereby weaponizing the supply chain.

What happens when any object can become a bomb?

This attack sets a deeply disturbing precedent—the weaponization of ordinary, essential technology in public spaces. The idea that these devices were compromised before even reaching Hezbollah underscores the growing sophistication of covert warfare. This tactic targets not just military infrastructure but also civilian life and infrastructure. Pagers, used by medical personnel, businesses, and citizens across Lebanon, have been weaponized. The normalization of such attacks creates a terrifying new reality where everyday objects can become deadly weapons, unraveling the fabric of daily life and instilling anxiety and paranoia at every level. Lebanese civilians– and civilians of the world– are now second-guessing the safety and security of tools and machines they use daily. 

The psychological impact of these attacks cannot be understated. The normalization of exploding communication devices introduces a new form of psychological warfare, creating an atmosphere of pervasive fear and distrust. As Israeli jets send sonic booms over Beirut, Lebanese civilians, already grappling with political instability and economic collapse, are now faced with the chilling possibility that ordinary objects—pagers, phones, and even medical equipment—can become weapons. The result is an atmosphere of pervasive fear, where public spaces and everyday items are fraught with danger. Public spaces become ticking time bombs, and the very infrastructure meant to support society becomes a weapon against it.

The result is an atmosphere of pervasive fear, where public spaces and everyday items are fraught with danger.

This escalation further compounds the mental health crisis. In the years following the 2019 financial crash, Lebanon has recorded some of the highest rates of daily negative experiences in the world, according to a survey by Gallup. These experiences remain prevalent, particularly among the poorest households. The poorest 20% of the population are disproportionately affected by worry (77%), stress (76%), pain (68%), sadness (52%), and anger (49%), compared with those with higher incomes. This emotional and psychological toll compounds the humanitarian crisis in Lebanon, adding a layer of distress to an already fragile situation.

Booby-trapping the public square

Former CIA director Leon Panetta called the deadly pager explosions in Lebanon a form of terrorism. He stated, “This is going right into the supply chain, […] and when you have terror going into the supply chain, it makes people ask the question: ‘What the hell is next?’” The explosion of pagers raises significant concerns about civilian harm and potential violations of international humanitarian law (IHL). Brian Finucane, writing in Just Security, highlights key questions regarding the legality of targeting individuals based on their status as Hezbollah fighters, whether the attacks were proportionate and discriminated between military and civilian targets, and if the use of booby-trap-like devices in a civilian area adhered to IHL obligations. 

The U.S. cannot ignore the gravity of this development. U.S.-supplied military technology and financial assistance have empowered Israel’s military dominance in the region, enabling destructive campaigns in Gaza, the West Bank, and throughout Lebanon. The U.S. has both a moral and legal responsibility to ensure that its security assistance is not being used to violate international law or endanger civilian populations. The use of clandestine tactics, like supply chain infiltration, to target civilians and civilian infrastructure crosses a dangerous line.

The use of clandestine tactics, like supply chain infiltration, to target civilians and civilian infrastructure crosses a dangerous line.

To prevent further destabilization, the Biden administration must seriously consider halting weapons transfers to Israel. This action would send an unmistakable message: the United States will not condone military actions that violate international law or endanger civilian populations. The Biden administration must not allow Israel to continue operating unchecked, especially when it’s using covert means that disrupt and derail civilian life.

Ultimately, the Biden administration must use its influence to promote peace and de-escalation. Halting arms transfers to Israel is a crucial first step toward reducing tensions, protecting civilians, and preventing further escalation in Lebanon and the region in the midst of an already devastating conflict.

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TRT World: One Year Since October 7

On October 9, TRT World interviewed CIP President and CEO Nancy Okail about the Middle East crisis a year after the October 7th attacks by Hamas and the ongoing response from Israel. 

She discussed the crisis, paths not taken, and how the continued lack of a ceasefire will factor in the US presidential election in November.

“We have lost our moral compass and none of this has been inevitable. All of it could have been avoided,” said Okail.

She continued:

The first step to take is to abide by US values and US moral standing, and that means abiding by the rule of law. When I say the rule of law I’m not just talking about international humanitarian law; I’m also talking about US laws that should prohibit arms to any country showing indications that there are violations for international humanitarian law 

Watch Okail on TRT World:

The Nation: Expanding Wars With a Lame Duck President

One year since the Hamas-led invasion into southern Israel, the conflict has expanded to not just Israel’s ongoing war in Gaza, but an expansion of hostilities to include attacks against diplomats and the Israeli bombardment and ground invasion of Lebanon. To understand how we got here, despite President Joe Biden’s adamant insistence that the US was working with Israel towards a ceasefire, Matt Duss joins Jeet Heer’s The Time Of Monsters podcast to discuss the conflict and also the prospect for change under a Kamala Harris presidency.

Listen below:

Wisdom of Crowds: War in the Middle East, Again

Shadi Hamid and Damir Marusic’s “Wisdom of Crowds” podcast invited Matt Duss on to discuss the unfolding crisis in Israel, Gaza, Lebanon and Iran. Duss outlines his expectation that Biden would leverage initial strong support for Israel, support reaffirmed following Hamas’ October 7th attack on Israel and Israeli civilians, into getting Netanyahu to accept a ceasefire. That has not happened, and as the hosts discuss, this is a tragedy, a domestic political failure, and even a failure along the lines of realpolitik, which at least expects some meaningful stability in exchange for permitting cruelty.

“What Israel has achieved over the past few weeks, I think no one would argue is impressive. But… it was no secret that Israel has impressive capabilities,” said Duss.  

“The question is how you turn these tactical successes into strategic gains. And that is where Israel has always failed us. Remember, Hezbollah was created in the wake of a previous special military operation in Lebanon. My concern is what comes out of this one both in Gaza and in Lebanon and potentially elsewhere in the region. Because, not to be cliche, but these are not overall military problems. These are political problems.“

You can listen to the full episode below:

War in the Middle East, Again by Wisdom of Crowds

Matt Duss, former advisor to Bernie Sanders, joins us to debate the (im-)morality of U.S. policy.

Read on Substack

The US Must Do More To Ensure Justice and Accountability for Ayşenur Eygi

On September 6, American Ayşenur Ezgi Eygi was killed after Israeli troops fired on a demonstration in the Nablus region of the West Bank. The shooting death of the 26-year old U.S. citizen has prompted growing calls for the Biden Administration to conduct its own independent investigation, as Eygi’s family has urged. 

Common Dreams’ Jake Johnson reports: 

Dylan Williams, vice president for government affairs at the Center for International Policy, said Monday that “the Biden Administration should be launching its own investigation into the killing of an American citizen.” “Instead,” he added, “it’s deflecting and deferring to Israel to hold its own soldiers and settlers accountable, which Israel has repeatedly failed to do.”

In a separate post on X, Williams added that the Biden Administration must act in accordance with U.S. laws and policies, calling on U.S. officials to  suspend security assistance to the units involved, conduct an investigation per the Civilian Harm Incident Response Guidance (CHIRG) and launch an FBI probe.

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UNBURDENED: How Harris could forge a post-neoliberal U.S. foreign policy

As Vice President Kamala Harris proceeds into the election and looks to carve out a path distinct from incumbent President Joe Biden, foreign policy is an area where she can make the most stark contrast with not just her opponent, but her predecessor. Anand Giridharadas interviewed CIP’s Matt Duss about what to do differently.

Their conversation is far reaching, from Gaza and arms shipments to international law and industrial policy. One major call from Duss is for a break with neoliberal economic visions of the past, ones that supported bad governments abroad in order to provide American capital access to cheap workers in those countries.

GIRIDHARADAS: What is the right message for Harris then? How do you talk about [this post-neoliberal economic approach] in terms that are not distorted by this — as you just put it — new hotness of great power competition.

DUSS: I think focusing on: This is what is going to be good for American workers. It’s going to be good for workers around the world. We are not pitting American workers against workers in China or anywhere else in this zero-sum competition. What we are doing is going to be good.

Again, the United States government’s first responsibility, first and foremost, is to the people of the United States. But making a pitch not only here but globally to say, Listen, we want to raise worker standards. We want to raise labor standards. We want to protect labor’s right to organize. That’s a very powerful message. And I also think looking at the speech that JD Vance gave at the RNC — in some ways, that was a mirror image or a darker version of the speech Jake Sullivan gave at Brookings because it was billed as a foreign policy speech.

And yet it was all about trade. It was all about how the elites have failed working people. That is a very powerful message. And people can call him weird all they want, but I’m saying that was a map to what they are trying to do.

Duss offers concrete policy recommendations for Harris, including:

Use leverage. “Enforce that law as a way of putting genuine pressure on the Israeli government, Netanyahu in particular, to accept a ceasefire”

Talk to Iran. “Getting to some regional agreement, a smaller nuclear deal that would at least have the U.S. and Iran talking and building some measure of familiarity and trust so that we better understand each other’s aims”

Reposition the United States in support of international law.

Ditch the “great power competition” frame. “I think defining our entire approach to the world through the lens of strategic competition is ultimately going to lead us down a very bad path that eventually leads one place, and that’s to conflict. It is not going to lead to more security and prosperity. It leads to more conflict. It’s just spending more on the military and spending less here on our people at home.”

Labor protections at home and abroad. “Minimum wage legislation. Minimum corporate tax legislation nationally and globally. The global corporate minimum tax is a huge one that her administration should really lean into. Global minimum corporate tax and a global minimum wage raising America’s minimum wage substantially. Leaning into the social safety net.”

Compassionate migration policy. “We’re not going to scare people away from the border given what they’ve already risked to get here. You need to address the reasons that they are choosing to flee.”

Rethink sanctions, “which don’t actually produce policy change. They just produce more refugees, more migrants. They produce more corruption on the parts of elites inside these countries.”

Read the full piece, which covers everything from Gaza to climate change to Iran, at The.Ink.

The Killing of a Hamas Leader Is Part of a Larger War

The assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, presumably by Israel, is the latest deliberate provocation in a series of deliberate provocations to keep the conflict going. Yet every provocation risks wider regional conflagration, and so long as US policy continues to shield Israel from the consequences of its actions, instead of pushing it to the negotiating table, the situation becomes more precarious.

Most crucially, the United States has plenty of existing leverage over the actions of Israel that the Biden administration could pursue, most immediately by adhering to, instead of sidestepping, US legal limits on arms sales to the country.

There’s another way, Matt Duss and Nancy Okail write for The New York Times:

At the time of this writing, a ground war in Lebanon and devastating, sustained missile barrages may still be staved off, but to do so will require deft, immediate diplomacy and actionable changes on the pipeline of arms to Israel. That will necessitate more action than we have seen in the last 10 months, leading us to worry that the conflagration may occur as much as the Americans would like to wish it away.

The time is late, but it is essential now for President Biden to finally apply real pressure to stop this war, by halting the supply of offensive arms, facilitating the return of hostages to Israel and enabling the provision of desperately needed humanitarian aid into Gaza. The United States must state loudly and clearly that the country will no longer support this war. And then show that it means it.

Read the full piece.

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A Diminished Netanyahu Meets Growing Protest in Congress

Editor’s note: On July 24, 2024, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel spoke before a joint session of the US Congress. Concurrently CIP co-hosted a counter-programming event, featuring among others Representative Pramila Jayapal, pictured above. The IPJ is happy to publish this paired response to Netanyahu’s speech, authored by Y.L. Al-Sheikh and Hadar Susskind.
 

Protest honors the dead. Action can save the living

Y.L. Al-Sheikh is a Palestinian-American writer and organizer.

Despite being responsible for the murder of more than 40,000 Palestinians and one of the most horrific campaigns of mass starvation in modern history, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was rewarded with the opportunity to come to Washington D.C. for a victory lap.

There will rightfully be many articles written on the saber rattling against Iran, or the slanderous attacks on American college students, but the most important element of the Prime Minister’s speech was by far his unsurprising rejection of Palestinian freedom and self-determination. By proposing that Gaza remain under Israeli “security control” for an indefinite amount of time, Netanyahu made clear yet again that he is ideologically opposed to anything but apartheid and Jewish supremacism between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River. While it is obvious to anyone who pays attention that this sort of regime does not guarantee Jewish safety, the facts seemed to matter little on Capitol Hill.

Netanyahu peddled lie after lie about the last ten months of warfare and destruction. When the Prime Minister claimed there were no civilian deaths in Rafah, this was of course a lie. The Prime Minister said that there has been no use of starvation as a weapon of war against Palestinians, and that is plainly untrue. The Prime Minister insisted that there are no plans to “resettle” Gaza, but his most senior coalition partners openly advocate for cleansing the land of its Palestinians and embedding Israeli settlers in their place. This is just a sampling of the falsehoods he threw at the audience.

Yet it was perhaps those who were or were not in attendance which painted the bigger picture. Roughly half of all the Democratic members of Congress opted to boycott Netanyahu’s propaganda tour, and those who didn’t were not keen to visibly approve of his rant. Palestinian-American state legislator Ruwa Romman (D-GA) was right to note that this demonstrates significant progress compared to the measly 58 Democrats who chose to boycott back in 2015. The boycott was hardly limited to socialists like Bernie Sanders and AOC, instead being embraced by the likes of Nancy Pelosi, Jim Clyburn, and Dick Durbin. This is likely because they know support for this war is unequivocally unpopular. Poll after poll shows that the demand for a ceasefire is a mainstream view, with voters more likely to cast a ballot for a Democrat who expresses clear support for a ceasefire than a Democrat who mirrors the Republican point of view. More than 45% of voters who expressed support for the Biden-Harris ticket believe that military assistance to Israel should be decreased. Some of the biggest labor unions in the country want President Biden to suspend military assistance entirely until the war is concluded. It is likely because of these facts that the Vice President herself opted not to attend Netanyahu’s remarks so soon after she became the presumptive nominee for the Democratic Party in the forthcoming presidential election.

As promising as the trend-line is for the long-term prospects of a Democratic party that values Palestinian life, slow shifts offer cold comfort while the Biden-Harris administration still supplies Netanyahu and his government with the bullets and bombs that kill Palestinians and the United States still acts as a diplomatic shield protecting the State of Israel from the consequences of its decades-long illegal occupation. Displays of discontent do not bring our dead back to life, and symbolic gestures will not secure us what we are entitled to.

Without an arms embargo, sanctions on the government of the State of Israel and its settler enterprise, and an internationally coordinated push for Palestinian self-determination, it is unlikely that any ceasefire will actually be permanent. Durable peace is not possible without Palestine, and the sooner that Democrats in the United States understand this the better. Occupation and apartheid systems are systematic obstacles to peace, not just the choices of the present Prime Minister, and as such require systematic response, and not just a change in Israel’s leadership, to remedy.

It is time for the Democratic Party to face the one-state reality in the eyes, admit that there will be no such thing as peace in the Middle East so long as Palestinians are subject to military rule and displacement, and take meaningful action. If those who boycotted the Prime Minister’s speech are truly disgusted with what this war has produced, then they should demand that not another bomb be sent to the government of Israel until a permanent ceasefire is established. If those who claim to support democracy at home want to prove their sincerity, they ought to oppose military rule and racial segregation abroad and fight for an end to the illegal occupation of Palestine. It will be up to us who care about Palestinian and Jewish life alike to ensure that these advancements finally happen. The Vice President, if she wins in November, has the chance to work with us and be bold on this front. I hope that she takes it up.
 

Netanyahu and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day

Hadar Susskind is President and CEO, Americans for Peace Now, and an Israeli-American dual citizen.

Yesterday, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stood before a joint session of Congress and spoke eloquently about Israel, about the October 7th attacks by Hamas, about the conflict with Hezbollah, about the looming threat of Iran, and about the US-Israel relationship. It was heartfelt, it was well delivered, and it was mostly not true.

He spoke about how Israel has allowed so much food into Gaza that any accusations of hunger as collective punishment are absurd. Sadly, it is his statement that strains credibility. The accounts of hunger are widespread and well documented.

He spoke about how he will do anything and everything to bring home the hostages still being held in Gaza. And yet, at this very speech, seven Israeli family members of those hostages were arrested for the “crime” of wearing t-shirts reading “Seal the Deal Now”. Those grieving family members showed up in those shirts knowing that they could be arrested, but did so despite that risk because they cannot otherwise get their Prime Minister’s attention, unless it’s for a photo-op.

He also spoke about how Iran is funding the “anti-Israel” protest in the United States, including those that took place right outside of the Capitol Building yesterday. As someone who helped lead, and spoke at, one of those protests, I can assure you, that wasn’t true either. The protest I spoke at, organized by UnXeptable, a group of Israeli ex-pats living here in the United States and cosponsored by many American Jewish organizations, featured rabbis, IDF veterans, and hostage families. Each demanded that Netanyahu end the war, bring home the hostages, and stop prioritizing his own political survival over the good of the nation he is supposed to be leading.

One remarkable facet of Netanyahu’s speech was how few people were there to hear it. Approximately half of the Democratic caucus (and one Republican) declared that they were unwilling to be used as props for Netanyahu’s speech, and they didn’t go. And many of those who were there, including the senior Jewish member of Congress Jerry Nadler, made their disdain for Netanyahu very clear. Even Senator Chuck Schumer, a longtime friend of the Prime Minister, gave him barely a nod as he entered, and received even less in return. This of course stems from Senator Schumer’s remarks in May in which he said he believes “Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has lost his way and is an obstacle to peace in the region”.

Netanyahu spoke in English, but his real audience was back in Israel. He has, for his whole career, told Israelis that he and he alone knows how to “manage America”. That he can captivate Congress and build bipartisan support. Like most of his speech, it was never very true. But yesterday it was made absolutely clear that through his words, his actions, and his failed government, Netanyahu has alienated not only Democrats in Congress, but the many millions of Americans who they represent. If anything, Congress lags behind the opinions of those Americans, many of whom were surprised and disappointed to see that any Democrats showed up for the speech.

Between the protests outside, the members of Congress who skipped the speech, the hostage families who showed up only to get arrested, and the disdain that the speech was met with in Israel, it is clear that Netanyahu had a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad day.

 

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