Trump’s Validation of the Iran Deal is Now Complete

Iran’s paths to a bomb were blocked under the JCPOA and cleared after Trump broke it:

 

• Under the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on Iran’s nuclear activities (the “JCPOA” or “Iran Deal”), Iran had less than enough low enriched uranium than that needed for a single nuclear weapon, if further enriched. It had no highly enriched uranium (HEU) and its nuclear sites and entire uranium production cycle were subject to 24/7/365 monitoring and other stringent safeguards overseen by international inspectors.
• After Trump unilaterally broke the deal in May 2018, Iran responded by gradually suspending its compliance with certain JCPOA obligations, eventually amassing a large stockpile of enriched uranium, including enough HEU for several nuclear weapons, if further enriched. The visibility of international inspectors into Iran’s nuclear work diminished significantly as monitoring equipment was shut off and other verification measures were suspended.
• Alongside its nuclear activities, Iran’s ballistic missile program, abuse of human rights, and support for militias and violent acts in the region – including attacks against U.S. servicemembers – also surged following Trump’s abrogation of the JCPOA.

 

Military strikes on Iran set back Iran’s nuclear program by far less than the Iran deal:

 

• Despite Trump’s claims that the U.S. attacks on Iranian nuclear sites “completely totally obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program, early U.S. intelligence reportedly assessed that the use of about half of the total U.S. arsenal of the largest “bunker buster” massive ordnance penetrators failed to collapse the key underground buildings at the sites, setting the program back by only a few months – far less than the 12-18 months breakout time under the JCPOA.
• Even more concerning is the fact that the Trump Administration says it does not know where Iran’s stockpile of several nuclear weapons worth of HEU is now.
• These results are especially troubling given official U.S. intelligence assessments that, while Iran had not made the decision to build nuclear weapons prior to the attacks, U.S. strikes against its nuclear facilities may lead the regime to decide to construct nuclear weapons.

 

Diplomacy is the only viable way forward:

 

• Diplomacy proved successful in blocking Iran’s paths to a nuclear weapon before and can be again, if given time and space to succeed, whereas military action has now reportedly failed.
• Diplomacy can only succeed if Trump avoids making maximalist demands – like insisting on zero uranium enrichment in Iran – based on the mistaken notion that he destroyed Iran’s program, rather than further incentivized a dash for a nuclear weapon by the regime.
• U.S. lawmakers should vocally support diplomacy and avoid rhetoric or actions that make achievement of an agreement less likely – such as insisting on maximalist terms for a deal.