The Cairo Review – A Reading on the Future of Hamas

There will come a time in Gaza when the guns fall silent, when the people left alive attempt to pick up the pieces, and when, most likely, some incarnation of Hamas will reach an agreement with the government of Israel about the immediate future of the strip, the people in it, and the adversarial organizations that have dominated life in Gaza for decades. Omar Shaban, CIP’s inaugural Leahy Fellow for Human Rights and Security, published a thoughtful meditation on the future of Hamas at Cairo Review, starting from the recent death of Yahya Sinwar, and the growing role of Hamas’ five-person council directing the organization from outside of Gaza.

Writes Shaban:

For the civilian population in Gaza, the first and foremost issue is immediately ending the genocidal war against them by the Israeli military. When it comes to post-war governance and administration of the Strip, Palestinians in Gaza will support whichever entity actively contributes to stopping the war and working toward reconstruction and rehabilitation in all respects—societal, economic, psychological, and political. Given the above, Hamas’ ability to provide for the needs of the Palestinians is in question.

But does this mean removing Hamas entirely from the political map in Palestine and the region? The most pragmatic answer is, no. Hamas is a resistance movement with an Islamic ideology that is deeply woven into the Palestinian popular fabric and has become an ideological mainstay in the Palestinian lexicon.

Shaban further outlines an argument that Hamas as an entity will still exist, or at least in enough of a form to make a major decision about the shape and structure of the group after the present war. The three options are, in summary: lay down arms in exchange for becoming a purely civilian government of Gaza, reconcile with other Palestinian parties and play a diminished role in a national consensus government, or step aside from direct government of Gaza and instead let a technocratic entity rule while maintaining Hamas independence as an organization.

To understand the possible shape of a coming peace, read Omar Shaban in The Cairo Review.