Fears of all-out Mideast war grow as world leaders gather for U.N. General Assembly

NPR’s Leila Fadel talks with Matt Duss, the executive vice president at the Center for International Policy, about Israel’s strategy in the conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon. Find the full interview here.

LEILA FADEL: The fears of all-out war in the Middle East grow as world leaders gather for the United Nations General Assembly.

ANTONIO GUTERRES: Lebanon is at the brink. The people of Lebanon, the people of Israel and the people of the world, cannot afford Lebanon to become another Gaza

LEILA FADEL: UN Secretary General, Antonio Guterres spoke to the opening session about the same time that health officials in Lebanon announced more than 550 were killed and 1000s more were wounded in a single 24 hour period, the deadliest day in Lebanon in decades. Thousands of civilians are fleeing Israeli airstrikes searching for safety. What will it take to de escalate to talk about this? Matt Duss is with me in studio this morning. He is the Executive Vice President at the Center for International Policy. It’s a nonprofit research and advocacy organization that’s been critical of Israel’s war in Gaza, and the response from the US. Matt, thanks for being here.

MATT DUSS: Very glad to be here, thank you.

LEILA FADEL: So 150 women and children among those killed in the strikes this, of course, after Israel was blamed for turning pagers and handheld radios that Hezbollah uses into little bombs that exploded in civilian areas. Why the dramatic escalation now?

MATT DUSS: Well, I think we should go back and to, you know, the, you know, the attacks of October 7 and the days immediately after, which is when Hezbollah, you know, started launching quite a few rockets into northern Israel, which has caused some 60,000 Israelis to have to flee their homes in northern Israel, in those communities which they’ve not been able to return. That rocket fire has continued as it has increased at certain times.

LEILA FADEL: And that’s for almost a year now.

MATT DUSS: For almost a year now, as this war has gone on, it’s hard to believe we’re almost a year into this, this catastrophic war. But, you know, there have been– A few weeks ago, there was a strike on a playground which killed a number of children in northern Israel–

LEILA FADEL: 12 kids.

MATT DUSS: –to which is Israel responded. But I think what we’re seeing now is, you know, an increase in the Israeli strikes, on, on, on, Lebanon against Hezbollah, because they believe they’ve kind of managed the situation in Gaza — and I hesitate to use that term manage. But I do also think it’s we have to understand that part of what’s driving this is Netanyahu’s belief that his only chance for political survival is to prolong and expand this war. He understands that as soon as this war comes to an end, he is going to face accountability for the failures of October 7, and that is something he would very, very much like to avoid.

LEILA FADEL: Now you point out, tens of thousands of Israelis have been evacuated from their homes. They want to go home, and the Israeli government says this is the way to make it safe. This escalation. Is this the way to do that?

MATT DUSS: It does not seem like it. Just hours ago, we saw a strike on Tel Aviv, which is the farthest south, I believe, that Hezbollah has launched in this in this engagement. Everyone understands that Hezbollah has tens of thousands of rockets and missiles and weapons that they could use if this war were to seriously escalate. But I think the approach that we see from the Israeli military here is, you know, and I hate using this term, but they call it ‘mowing the lawn.’ Where you will have a conflict, a brief conflict, which will buy some buy some time and some space. But this is far worse than we’ve seen, just as the Gaza war is far worse than previous wars. But again, there is really no longer-term strategy here, other than to strike hard at the enemy to kind of do some damage to their capabilities, to their to their weapons stores, and hope that you can buy some normalcy. But again, we see cycle after cycle, time after time, returning to this conflict. It is really intolerable for everyone.

LEILA FADEL: Yeah, that strike toward Tel Aviv was intercepted. So what should Israel do to make it stop.

MATT DUSS: Well, I think this all comes back to Gaza. I mean, Hezbollah has made clear that the rocket fire will stop when the Gaza war stops. There have been, of course, an effort by the Biden administration, starting four months ago, to get a permanent ceasefire. That is US policy as of the end of May was to bring this war to an end, at least that’s Biden’s stated policy. Unfortunately, he’s not been able to get that agreement, and one of the reasons why, as I said, Netanyahu has no interest in ending this war. He has made this clear. It’s been reported. We’ve seen numerous comments by Israeli officials, Israeli security officials, that Netanyahu is the one who continues to undermine these ceasefire negotiations. But unfortunately, President Biden still refuses to apply real pressure and use real leverage in the form of arms sales to really push Netanyahu to to agree to that ceasefire. The United States is the only country in the world that can impose those costs, and unfortunately, President Biden is still unwilling to do that.

LEILA FADEL: Matt Duss is from the Center for International Policy. Thank you, Matt.