CIP Insider: Doomsday Clocking In

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This week, we cover the fall of Bashar al Assad in Syria, the ongoing political crisis in South Korea, diminished prospects from gender justice from the UN’s climate conference, and preparing for another Trump administration.

But first…why is President Joe Biden handing Donald Trump a reloaded and expanded nuclear arsenal?

Joseph Cirincione has decades of experience in Washington around issues of nuclear security and disarmament. He also recently joined CIP’s board of Directors, and offered a thorough examination of the renewed nuclear peril brought about by a disinterest in disarmament in Washington.

Writes Cirincione: 

It is unlikely that in their present state, the existing pro-arms control organizations and research programs can have a meaningful impact on Trump’s nuclear policies. Nor is a mass anti-nuclear movement likely to emerge, as it did in the 1980s. There are, however, several possibilities that could develop measurable influence over nuclear policy.

Read the full piece, “Can We Prevent Nuclear Catastrophe during the Trump Administration?,” in the International Policy Journal.

In Other News…

After Assad

On December 8, Bashar Al-Assad fled Syria for Moscow, ending decades of rule by the Assad family, and in particular the Assad family’s direct oversight of a brutal war against Syrians in revolt against the dictatorship. In response to the overthrow, Nancy Okail said, “Today belongs to the people of Syria. The astonishing speed at which the Assad regime has crumbled exposes once again the inherent fragility of seemingly ironclad dictatorships,” adding, “the United States and its partners should take immediate steps to facilitate delivery of humanitarian and reconstruction aid.” Read the full statement. Sina Toossi explains why Assad’s fall reinforces the need to de-escalate in the region, including by “offering Palestinians a credible political horizon and not opposing US-Iran negotiations.” 

Faces of MAGA

Nancy Okail tells EuroNews that, by picking property mogul Steve Witkoff as Middle East envoy, Trump is doubling down on a transactional policy for the region, one grounded more in real estate than real people. Trump’s floated Department of Government Efficiency, to be efficiently co-headed by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, has attracted a lot of ire, not the least for its too-online name, but Stephen Semler tells The Hill, “If there’s common ground, let’s play ball. But I think there needs to be more dialogue steering Musk and […] encouraging him and DOGE to focus on the Pentagon waste.” Meanwhile, the elevation of reactionary Brian Mast to chair the House Foreign Affairs Committee is “hugely troubling,” Matt Duss tells Al Monitor, urging Democrats to “be very clear how objectionable his views are.”

Progress, Not Nostalgia

As Okail and Matt Duss argue in Foreign Affairs, neither “America First” unilateralism nor a backwards-looking liberal internationalism can address the urgent needs of a world grappling with climate change, economic inequality, and political instability. On Background Briefing With Ian Masters, Okail elaborates on the path forward for progressives.

Dressing Down

Iran’s parliament passed a new bill mandating strict penalties for improper dress. Iran’s reformist president Masoud Pezeshkian, has voiced opposition to the bill. As Sina Toossi tells CNN, this “reflects a miscalculation of public sentiment and is unlikely to achieve the government’s stated goals of preserving traditional social norms.” The elected president and administration “ just don’t have the power to overhaul and change the situation,” added Negar Mortazavi.

Listen Up!

On the Un-Diplomatic Podcast, Van Jackson continues his geopolitical dumpster dive, covering everything from the attempted self-coup by South Korea’s president to Trump’s threatened tariffs, New Zealand labour foreign policy, and funding submarines in the United States.

Spotlight: COP29 Gender

The United Nations held its annual climate change conference, COP29, in Baku, Azerbaijan in November. While activists attended expecting to build on previous progress, they found that when it came to addressing the disparate impact of climate change along gender lines, they had to rebuild from scratch.

Reports Anmol Irfan:

“There were women in Honduras who were told winds of 260 km were coming but they didn’t know what that meant, whether that was fast or slow, and so they continued to be on the coast and one of them lost two of her kids,” [gender advocate and Costa Rica’s former Vice Minister in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs] Lorena Aguilar says, adding that when an NGO came to help them rebuild their house which had also been destroyed, they asked them for land property rights papers which these women didn’t have.”

Read the rest of Irfan’s report at The International Policy Journal.

Second Run

Negar Mortazavi participated in ISPI International Mediterranean Dialogue, where she took part in The future of Iran-Gulf relations panel. The panel is available on YouTube.

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Want more podcast content with CIP experts? Check out Un-Diplomatic with Van Jackson and Matt Duss, Black Diplomats with Terrell Jermaine Starr and The Iran Podcast with Negar Mortazavi