Beyond Maximalism: Reimagining U.S. Strategy Toward Iran Through Systems Thinking

The outcome of the U.S.-Iran war launched in February 2026 “exposed a deeper failure of systems thinking in U.S. strategy toward Iran and the region,” argues CIP Senior Nonresident Fellow Sina Toossi, in a new report supported by Horizon 2045 and Ploughshares.

“Linear assumptions about coercion, military superiority, and maximalist pressure repeatedly failed to account or adaptation, unintended consequences, escalation dynamics, and the resilience of institutionalized political orders under external attack,” he continues. “Rather than producing strategic victory, these approaches intensified regional instability, strengthened hardline and militarized actors, accelerated nuclear hedging, and increased the risk of a wider and more permanent conflict.”

Read the full report below: