CIP Statement on Lebanon Ceasefire Agreement

In response to the announcement of a permanent ceasefire agreement to be fully implemented over the course of 60 days in Lebanon, Center for International Policy president and CEO Nancy Okail issued the following statement:

“We welcome news of a ceasefire agreement in Lebanon and hope that it can be implemented and sustained to prevent further harm to civilians who have been under threat of attack or suffered other great loss during the fighting. 

“This agreement nonetheless comes too late. While Israel has the right to legitimate self-defense against Hezbollah, the Netanyahu government’s deliberate escalation of the conflict in September resulted in disproportionate harm to civilians, hundreds of whom have been wounded or killed, with hundreds of thousands more displaced. Mixed messages and prevaricating by the Biden administration on its position on Israel’s escalation and the need for a ceasefire has further prolonged the fighting and exacerbated the death and destruction it has brought.

“The U.S. and its partners must ensure that the terms of this agreement are fully honored so that civilians on both sides of the border can safely return to and rebuild their communities. What remains of the utmost urgency, however, is also ending the war in Gaza, where the U.S. arming of the Netanyahu government’s campaign of displacement, starvation, slaughter and – per the repeated vows of senior Israeli officials – settlement continues in violation of American and international law.”

NPR’s All Things Considered: Blinken heads off on another visit to Middle East as conflict spreads

Secretary of State Antony Blinken is headed to the Middle East this week, following the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar by the Israel Defence Forces, and as Israel continues its war against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Michele Kelemen of NPR interviewed CIP’s Executive Vice President Matt Duss about Blinken’s upcoming trip.

For hawks inside Washington, this is a moment for Israel to press the advantage against Hamas and Hezbollah, both seen as Iranian proxies. Says Duss:

“There are people in the Biden administration who are buying this. They see what is happening in Gaza, what is happening in Lebanon, possible strikes elsewhere in the region including Iran, essentially as a way to reshuffle the regional security deck. We have seen historically this kind of hubris and overreach does not deliver peace, it does not deliver stability, it has a whole set of unintended consequences, they may not happen right now but they will come. I think the United States looks more powerless with every successive trip [Blinken] takes there and comes back with nothing.”

Listen to Duss on NPR.

When Pagers Became Bombs: The New Reality of Psychological Warfare 

Janet Abou-Elias is a research fellow at the Center for International Policy and co-founder of Women for Weapons Trade Transparency.

The Lebanese Health Ministry announced Wednesday that the death toll from Israeli attacks on Lebanon has risen to 2,119, with another 10,019 since October 8, 2023. At least 50 paramedics have been killed in Lebanon over the last three weeks. With over a million people – a fifth of the population – displaced by Israeli bombings of Beirut and Southern Lebanon and ongoing ground invasion, the existing humanitarian crisis has deepened. This latest surge of violence, coupled with covert operations like the pager and walkie talkie explosions, threatens to further destabilize the country.

The pager and walkie talkie explosions, unprecedented in scope, have raised serious questions about the involvement of Israel’s military apparatus in covert operations, especially in the context of its ongoing assault on Gaza. This is no ordinary cyber attack– reports suggest these explosions stem from a covert supply chain infiltration rather than software manipulation, marking a significant escalation in an already volatile situation. According to the Lebanese Health Ministry, the pager explosions killed twelve people, including a ten-year-old girl and a young boy, and injured thousands. Just days later, a wave of walkie talkie explosions killed 20 and left 450 people injured.

Sources indicate that the affected pagers were recently acquired by Hezbollah in a new shipment from Taiwan-based electronic manufacturer Gold Apollo. The Lebanese government spokesman said Israel is responsible for the pager explosions, deeming it a violation of Lebanese sovereignty. If this is correct, it points to an operation in which the IDF targeted essential communication equipment at the procurement level, thereby weaponizing the supply chain.

What happens when any object can become a bomb?

This attack sets a deeply disturbing precedent—the weaponization of ordinary, essential technology in public spaces. The idea that these devices were compromised before even reaching Hezbollah underscores the growing sophistication of covert warfare. This tactic targets not just military infrastructure but also civilian life and infrastructure. Pagers, used by medical personnel, businesses, and citizens across Lebanon, have been weaponized. The normalization of such attacks creates a terrifying new reality where everyday objects can become deadly weapons, unraveling the fabric of daily life and instilling anxiety and paranoia at every level. Lebanese civilians– and civilians of the world– are now second-guessing the safety and security of tools and machines they use daily. 

The psychological impact of these attacks cannot be understated. The normalization of exploding communication devices introduces a new form of psychological warfare, creating an atmosphere of pervasive fear and distrust. As Israeli jets send sonic booms over Beirut, Lebanese civilians, already grappling with political instability and economic collapse, are now faced with the chilling possibility that ordinary objects—pagers, phones, and even medical equipment—can become weapons. The result is an atmosphere of pervasive fear, where public spaces and everyday items are fraught with danger. Public spaces become ticking time bombs, and the very infrastructure meant to support society becomes a weapon against it.

The result is an atmosphere of pervasive fear, where public spaces and everyday items are fraught with danger.

This escalation further compounds the mental health crisis. In the years following the 2019 financial crash, Lebanon has recorded some of the highest rates of daily negative experiences in the world, according to a survey by Gallup. These experiences remain prevalent, particularly among the poorest households. The poorest 20% of the population are disproportionately affected by worry (77%), stress (76%), pain (68%), sadness (52%), and anger (49%), compared with those with higher incomes. This emotional and psychological toll compounds the humanitarian crisis in Lebanon, adding a layer of distress to an already fragile situation.

Booby-trapping the public square

Former CIA director Leon Panetta called the deadly pager explosions in Lebanon a form of terrorism. He stated, “This is going right into the supply chain, […] and when you have terror going into the supply chain, it makes people ask the question: ‘What the hell is next?’” The explosion of pagers raises significant concerns about civilian harm and potential violations of international humanitarian law (IHL). Brian Finucane, writing in Just Security, highlights key questions regarding the legality of targeting individuals based on their status as Hezbollah fighters, whether the attacks were proportionate and discriminated between military and civilian targets, and if the use of booby-trap-like devices in a civilian area adhered to IHL obligations. 

The U.S. cannot ignore the gravity of this development. U.S.-supplied military technology and financial assistance have empowered Israel’s military dominance in the region, enabling destructive campaigns in Gaza, the West Bank, and throughout Lebanon. The U.S. has both a moral and legal responsibility to ensure that its security assistance is not being used to violate international law or endanger civilian populations. The use of clandestine tactics, like supply chain infiltration, to target civilians and civilian infrastructure crosses a dangerous line.

The use of clandestine tactics, like supply chain infiltration, to target civilians and civilian infrastructure crosses a dangerous line.

To prevent further destabilization, the Biden administration must seriously consider halting weapons transfers to Israel. This action would send an unmistakable message: the United States will not condone military actions that violate international law or endanger civilian populations. The Biden administration must not allow Israel to continue operating unchecked, especially when it’s using covert means that disrupt and derail civilian life.

Ultimately, the Biden administration must use its influence to promote peace and de-escalation. Halting arms transfers to Israel is a crucial first step toward reducing tensions, protecting civilians, and preventing further escalation in Lebanon and the region in the midst of an already devastating conflict.

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Statement on Major Israeli Escalation in Lebanon

Center for International Policy (CIP) executive vice president Matt Duss issued the following statement regarding Israel’s recent escalation in Lebanon, including the current ground offensive:

“The Israeli government’s decision to dramatically escalate its attacks in Lebanon is a dangerous gamble that risks the lives of countless Lebanese, Israeli, Palestinian and other civilians across the region.

“Israel has the right to defend itself from Hezbollah and other threats, but we note that this escalation comes after months of Prime Minister Netanyahu rejecting U.S. efforts to secure a ceasefire in Gaza. As we know from the very recent past, the potential for protracted, deadly escalation is significant. Israel has been caught in a costly quagmire in Lebanon before – one that ultimately did not defeat Hezbollah or provide lasting security on its northern border. An Israeli military assault on Lebanon that employs the same methods or maximalist objectives as the nearly year-old war in Gaza threatens to cause even more devastation and death, with civilians bearing the brunt of the carnage.

“The Biden Administration is right to seek deescalation, but must realize that months of failure to impose meaningful consequences on Netanyahu for grave international humanitarian law violations and obstructing a ceasefire in Gaza has contributed to the disregard for U.S. and international concerns with which Israel has now acted in Lebanon. The ability of the United States to prevent an all-out war that could draw in the U.S. and Iran and imperil millions in the region, including American personnel, rests on whether President Biden is finally willing to take the steps necessary – including suspending offensive weapons deliveries – to prevent a horrific conflagration.”

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Matt Duss discusses Hezbollah, Lebanon, and Israel on Mehdi Unfiltered

Executive Vice President Matt Duss joins Zeteo’s Mehdi Hassan to discuss the humanitarian toll in Lebanon, how likely it is that Iran will get involved, and how another war could impact the US presidential election:

Hezbollah, Lebanon, and Israel: Five Things You Need To Know by Mehdi Hasan

Mehdi debunks some of the main media and hasbara myths about the new escalation in the Middle East.

Read on Substack

Watch the full interview on Zeteo. Check out transcript excerpts below:

MEHDI HASAN: Matt, were you surprised at the sheer ferocity of the Israeli assault? It’s the single biggest day of killing in Lebanon since the end of the Civil War in 1990, I believe. Over 500 dead in a day, even by Israeli standards. Even by the standards of Gaza, 500 dead in a day.

MATT DUSS: Right, no, I was surprised. And that’s saying a lot. What we’ve seen over the past 11 months really just defies belief, really unprecedented, I think, in this century in terms of modern warfare, the amount of destruction. But the ferocity of the strikes this week were staggering.

[….]

MEHDI HASAN: And, Matt, in terms of long histories, obviously Americans aren’t very good when it comes to long histories, whether it’s American elites or the American public. When you look at what’s happening with Lebanon right now from a D.C. perspective… You had Joe Biden say, my red line is Rafah. Netanyahu trampled all over that red line, destroyed Rafah in many ways. Then he said, well, regional escalation, that’s another red line. We’re not going to support you. There were all these leaks from the administration. We’re not going to support you if you pick a fight beyond Gaza. They’ve picked a fight beyond Gaza. There’s an argument that they want to escalate to Iran, and we’ll come to that. What is going on in Washington, D.C.? You’re here. You’ve worked in this town on foreign policy for a long time. You’ve worked in Congress. What is the… What calculations are going on right now in the White House, in Congress?

MATT DUSS: Right. I mean, to back up what you said about the red line, I think is right. I mean, President Biden laid down a red line on Rafah, but it became clear that the real red line was that regional escalation. We’ve seen the U.S. engage in strikes on Iran-backed groups, especially after the strike on the Jordanian facility that killed several American service members. And they opposed the Rafah invasion until it became clear that that invasion could be carried out without spilling into Egypt. So they have themselves admitted that the humanitarian impact, the number of deaths and displaced in the Rafah operation was as bad or worse than they feared. But as long as it was contained within Gaza, And as you said, Netanyahu rolled right over it. The challenge we have now is almost a year into this, whatever President Biden might say about what he wants or doesn’t want, he refuses and has refused all along to impose any costs on Netanyahu. And until that equation changes, Netanyahu is going to continue what he’s doing, which is prolonging, sustaining and expanding this war for his own political purposes. Again, it is very clear. that that is what is driving this. Israeli officials themselves have acknowledged this. The president himself apparently, you know, reportedly, privately has acknowledged that he understands that Netanyahu knows his only path to staying in political power and avoiding the reckoning for October 7 is to sustain this war.

[…]

MEHDI HASAN: When Israel says we’re being attacked on multiple fronts by Iran-backed groups, by the Houthis, by Hamas, by Hezbollah, And someone like Karim says, well, actually, they all say end the genocide and we’ll stop this. The Houthis have said that for a while. The counter comes, well, you can’t trust these groups. That’s a very naive, simplistic view of the world. But could it be that simple that if you stop the killing in Gaza, a lot of this goes away?

MATT DUSS: No, there is obviously a larger regional context here. Some of these groups, you know, they have relationships with Iran, some of which are much closer, as with Hezbollah, some not so close, as with the Houthis. But It seems pretty clear that Gaza is the crisis that is driving this right now. So yes, once you end the Gaza war, you do have a range of other problems that you still need to deal with, a range of other conflicts and tensions. But really, the Gaza catastrophe, it is what is driving this crisis right now. And we just, you know, there’s an effort by the Israelis, by Netanyahu, and by some in the United States to try and de-link these things. But we cannot.

MEHDI HASAN: Do you think that the people who are doing the de-linking in DC, Matt, they’re doing that through ignorance, or they know? Is the guy sitting inside the Pentagon, the State Department, the White House National Security Council, is that guy, he knows.

MATT DUSS: He knows that this is all interlinked, and that if we stopped one, we would stop the rest. But he can’t say it, because the political atmosphere doesn’t allow him to say it. By and large, I think people know. But you do have, you know, you have a faction in Washington, a very influential one, that is just fundamentally committed to backing what Israel wants at any given time. Some who seem, you know, particularly committed to Netanyahu. Some are acting, I think, in good faith. They are committed to the security of Israel. But the way that they divide, you know, support that in policy, we all see the results. Right? I mean, this Gaza war, the context of it comes in years and decades of U.S.-backed impunity in the occupied territories. That is what created the context for the attacks, the horrific attacks of October 7.

[…]

MEHDI HASAN: We’ve seen this movie before, Matt, in the War on Terror, where, quote, unquote, the War on Terror, which was a war of terror in many ways, and which emboldened a lot of groups and pushed a lot of people in the Middle East who should have been on our side, quote, unquote, onto the side of our opponents because of the nature of how we fought. Has the United States, A) learned any lessons from its war on terror and B) is it trying to impart any of those lessons to the Israelis?

MATT DUSS: Well that’s really interesting because president Biden as you might remember in the days and weeks after October 7 when he was you know demonstrating his support for Israel, which again I think was appropriate especially in the wake of that attack, said specifically we’re trying I’m trying to help them understand some of the lessons we learned after 9/11. Don’t make our mistakes and yet they’re making worse mistakes. And the United States and President Biden himself is backing those mistakes unconditionally. So I’m very sorry to say it does not seem that this city, many in this city have — I think there’s been more criticism of this policy than we’ve seen in the past — but I’m really frustrated to see that so many in this city have not learned those lessons.

MEHDI HASAN: A lot of people watching this will wonder, especially globally, why can people in Washington DC not see what everyone else in the world sees? As I say, you’ve been part of the bureaucracy. You’ve been in Congress. You’re in a think tank in DC. I think it’s too simplistic just to say it’s AIPAC, right? It’s a lot of factors.

MATT DUSS: That’s right–

MEHDI HASAN: What kind of factors are we talking here? Military industrial complex, the blob, as Ben Rhodes identified, kind of lazy conventional wisdom thinking. Is it Joe Biden being a Zionist in his gut? Just briefly explain to us, what are the multiplicity of factors that make Washington DC so impervious to the arguments that seem to work everywhere else? Macron comes out and says the occasional sensible thing. The British government occasionally comes out, but not in DC.

MATT DUSS: Yeah. I mean, first of all, it’s really hard to overstate the impact of a president who’s setting the tone as Joe Biden has, which is just full support for Israel and little, if any, acknowledgment of the humanity of the Palestinians, their value as human beings. I think we have seen this time and time again. And it’s partially the avoiding disagreement with the leader of your party. I mean, this is not just a foreign policy problem. Any party, politicians in that party are by and large going to be very hesitant to break with the leader in their party. And he has set this tone. Now, that has not been total. We certainly have seen people in the Congress who have had the courage to disagree and criticize.

MEHDI HASAN: All Democrats, by the way. All Democrats. No Republicans.

MATT DUSS: Of course, all Democrats. Part of it is just who, you know, the people we have kind of informing us in the major media, they tend to have a particular ideological bent on this as well, or else they just don’t know very much about it, and so the people they are trying to learn from aren’t giving them the best information. And I think we also have to acknowledge that a lot of this is just careerism. There are boundaries that are set Those boundaries are changing. Again, I think the conversation we were having about these issues is different and in many ways better than we’ve been having in the past. But there is still a very real caution, especially for younger and maybe mid-level foreign policy professionals who have their eye on that future job in the administration and don’t want to create problems for themselves down the road because they have seen how careers have been destroyed by people who take Palestinian lives too seriously. For people who take Palestinian lives to seriously.

MEHDI HASAN: What’s so insane to me, Matt, is that it is very clearly going to hurt the Democrats domestically if this continues to escalate. We are a month or two away from the election, month and a half, whatever, they can’t keep track of the date anymore. Countdown to disaster. And there’s no scenario in which a Middle East regional war involving America supporting Israel against Iran helps Kamala Harris. It’s insane.

MATT DUSS: I agree.

MEHDI HASAN: It’s self-harming for the Democrats.

MATT DUSS: I think this is, you know, the Biden administration’s, you know, calculation clearly was that Americans wouldn’t really care. I think, you know, Vice President Harris, you know, obviously has taken a bit more of a forward-leaning approach on the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. I think that’s important. I think it is notable that she lifted up the Palestinians and their right to self-determination in the convention speech. She didn’t go as far as many of us wanted. But still, the fact that that was a short speech that checked a number of boxes, that was a box she felt she needed to check. So I think we should take that as an acknowledgement. of this party, and that’s a growing constituency in the party. But yes, the fact that she has not signaled more of a break from Biden’s approach here, I think that’s going to be a problem. It may be a problem at the margins, but this election is going to be very close. It will be decided on the margins, and this could make the difference.

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Fears of all-out Mideast war grow as world leaders gather for U.N. General Assembly

NPR’s Leila Fadel talks with Matt Duss, the executive vice president at the Center for International Policy, about Israel’s strategy in the conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon. Find the full interview here.

LEILA FADEL: The fears of all-out war in the Middle East grow as world leaders gather for the United Nations General Assembly.

ANTONIO GUTERRES: Lebanon is at the brink. The people of Lebanon, the people of Israel and the people of the world, cannot afford Lebanon to become another Gaza

LEILA FADEL: UN Secretary General, Antonio Guterres spoke to the opening session about the same time that health officials in Lebanon announced more than 550 were killed and 1000s more were wounded in a single 24 hour period, the deadliest day in Lebanon in decades. Thousands of civilians are fleeing Israeli airstrikes searching for safety. What will it take to de escalate to talk about this? Matt Duss is with me in studio this morning. He is the Executive Vice President at the Center for International Policy. It’s a nonprofit research and advocacy organization that’s been critical of Israel’s war in Gaza, and the response from the US. Matt, thanks for being here.

MATT DUSS: Very glad to be here, thank you.

LEILA FADEL: So 150 women and children among those killed in the strikes this, of course, after Israel was blamed for turning pagers and handheld radios that Hezbollah uses into little bombs that exploded in civilian areas. Why the dramatic escalation now?

MATT DUSS: Well, I think we should go back and to, you know, the, you know, the attacks of October 7 and the days immediately after, which is when Hezbollah, you know, started launching quite a few rockets into northern Israel, which has caused some 60,000 Israelis to have to flee their homes in northern Israel, in those communities which they’ve not been able to return. That rocket fire has continued as it has increased at certain times.

LEILA FADEL: And that’s for almost a year now.

MATT DUSS: For almost a year now, as this war has gone on, it’s hard to believe we’re almost a year into this, this catastrophic war. But, you know, there have been– A few weeks ago, there was a strike on a playground which killed a number of children in northern Israel–

LEILA FADEL: 12 kids.

MATT DUSS: –to which is Israel responded. But I think what we’re seeing now is, you know, an increase in the Israeli strikes, on, on, on, Lebanon against Hezbollah, because they believe they’ve kind of managed the situation in Gaza — and I hesitate to use that term manage. But I do also think it’s we have to understand that part of what’s driving this is Netanyahu’s belief that his only chance for political survival is to prolong and expand this war. He understands that as soon as this war comes to an end, he is going to face accountability for the failures of October 7, and that is something he would very, very much like to avoid.

LEILA FADEL: Now you point out, tens of thousands of Israelis have been evacuated from their homes. They want to go home, and the Israeli government says this is the way to make it safe. This escalation. Is this the way to do that?

MATT DUSS: It does not seem like it. Just hours ago, we saw a strike on Tel Aviv, which is the farthest south, I believe, that Hezbollah has launched in this in this engagement. Everyone understands that Hezbollah has tens of thousands of rockets and missiles and weapons that they could use if this war were to seriously escalate. But I think the approach that we see from the Israeli military here is, you know, and I hate using this term, but they call it ‘mowing the lawn.’ Where you will have a conflict, a brief conflict, which will buy some buy some time and some space. But this is far worse than we’ve seen, just as the Gaza war is far worse than previous wars. But again, there is really no longer-term strategy here, other than to strike hard at the enemy to kind of do some damage to their capabilities, to their to their weapons stores, and hope that you can buy some normalcy. But again, we see cycle after cycle, time after time, returning to this conflict. It is really intolerable for everyone.

LEILA FADEL: Yeah, that strike toward Tel Aviv was intercepted. So what should Israel do to make it stop.

MATT DUSS: Well, I think this all comes back to Gaza. I mean, Hezbollah has made clear that the rocket fire will stop when the Gaza war stops. There have been, of course, an effort by the Biden administration, starting four months ago, to get a permanent ceasefire. That is US policy as of the end of May was to bring this war to an end, at least that’s Biden’s stated policy. Unfortunately, he’s not been able to get that agreement, and one of the reasons why, as I said, Netanyahu has no interest in ending this war. He has made this clear. It’s been reported. We’ve seen numerous comments by Israeli officials, Israeli security officials, that Netanyahu is the one who continues to undermine these ceasefire negotiations. But unfortunately, President Biden still refuses to apply real pressure and use real leverage in the form of arms sales to really push Netanyahu to to agree to that ceasefire. The United States is the only country in the world that can impose those costs, and unfortunately, President Biden is still unwilling to do that.

LEILA FADEL: Matt Duss is from the Center for International Policy. Thank you, Matt.

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US Must Act Urgently to Deescalate the Growing Middle East Conflict

Following the escalation of hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel over the weekend, marked by increasing fatalities and suggesting a further expansion of the war, Center for International Policy executive vice president Matt Duss issued the following statement:

“The Biden Administration was warned for months that failure to ensure Israel abides by its international law obligations, as well US law, in the Gaza war and linked conflicts could lead to dangerous escalation throughout the region. In the absence of any meaningful US response to its repeated violations of US red lines, the government of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has continued to kill large numbers of civilians in Gaza, obstructed ceasefire efforts, and engaged in provocative strikes around the region.

“While Israel has the right and duty to defend itself from forces like Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran – all of which have engaged in outrageous and illegal terrorism against Israel and its citizens – Israel’s actions to counter such threats must adhere to the same international humanitarian law obligations binding all combatants. 

“In the wake of Israel’s sabotage attack via hundreds of exploding electronic devices that killed civilians, including children, in addition to Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, Hezbollah and Israel are now engaged in an exchange of missile and bombing attacks that could easily spiral into an all-out war between them. The prospects for a broad ceasefire in Gaza and elsewhere are near rock bottom, while the potential for a regional conflict that imperils millions of civilians as well as US personnel in the Middle East is rising sharply.

“As President Biden and his foreign policy team head to New York for the United Nations General Assembly, they should prioritize working with attending world leaders to halt this escalation and prevent a catastrophic conflagration. Arresting this precipitous slide into an avoidable war will require the Biden administration to engage, directly or indirectly, with adversaries who can help constrain Hamas and Hezbollah. It will also require the administration to finally take necessary steps to rein in the Netanyahu government as it seeks to cling to power by deepening and prolonging conflicts that undermine the security of all in the region, as well as the United States.”

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