Operation Epic Fury, Regime Change, and the Collapse of Legal Constraint 

On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched joint military strikes against Iran in what the Pentagon designated Operation Epic Fury. The operation came two days after the most substantive round of U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations in years had concluded in Geneva, with both parties agreeing to continue talks. Within hours of those assurances, the bombs fell. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed. Strikes targeted the Iranian president, military chief of staff, and extensive military infrastructure. A strike on a girls’ primary school in Minab reportedly killed nearly one hundred children between the ages of seven and twelve.

This article is not primarily about those facts, though they deserve full moral weight. It is about what those facts represent in the architecture of international law: not an aberration, but the latest and most severe instance in a deliberate, escalating pattern of U.S. policy that treats the prohibition on the use of force as optional, the Security Council as a procedural nuisance, and unilateralism as astrategic doctrine. From Venezuela to Iran, from Operation Midnight Hammer in June 2025 to the military raid on Caracas on January 3, 2026, to Operation Epic Fury in February 2026. The question for the international community is whether it will respond with proportionate seriousness or retreat, once again, into diplomatic ambiguity.

This article draws on the author’s prior analysis, examining U.S. strikes in Venezuela and the legal framework governing the use of force, as well as a companion analysis on civilian protection and the prohibition on the use of force in the Iranian context. It argues that the time for legal cataloguing alone has passed. What is needed now is a dual-track approach: constraint from within the United States, and constraint from without.

The Illegality is Not in Dispute

The legal analysis of Operation Epic Fury is straightforward. Article 2(4) of the United Nations Charter prohibits the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state. Two exceptions exist: Security Council authorization under Chapter VII, and individual or collective self-defense in response to an armed attack under Article 51. Neither applies here.

The Security Council did not authorize the use of force against Iran. The United States did not request such authorization. Iran was not attacking the United States or Israel at the time of the strikes. Whatever residual concern might be derived from earlier Iranian actions had long ceased to generate an ongoing armed attack capable of activating the self-defense exception. Iran was, by all accounts, engaged in active negotiations. The U.S. Director of National Intelligence had testified as recently as March 2025 that Iran was not building a nuclear weapon and its supreme leader had not reauthorized the program suspended in 2003. The IAEA affirmed it had found no proof of a systematic weapons effort.

The strikes were also launched in violation of Article 2(2) of the Charter, which requires good faith in the fulfillment of Charter obligations. Launching military operations during active diplomatic negotiations, operations that the U.S. president had, days earlier, indicated would wait, is a breach of the most elemental duty of good faith that the Charter’s architecture depends upon. Iran’s Foreign Ministry characterized this correctly.

Separately, the stated U.S. objective of regime change, explicitly framed by President Trump as a goal of the operation, and echoed by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, who declared the aim was to “remove the existential threat posed by the terrorist regime in Iran,” constitutes an independent violation of international law. The prohibition on forcible regime change is not a contested doctrine. It flows directly from Article 2(4)’s protection of “political independence” and from the customary norm of non-intervention. It is, in the language of the International Law Commission, a peremptory norm from which no derogation is permitted. 

A Pattern, Not an Episode

What distinguishes the current crisis from earlier controversies is not merely its scale. It is the administration’s explicit abandonment of any pretense of legal compliance. In the living memory of every diplomat, lawyer, and policymaker currently active in international institutions, the United States has consistently sought to present its uses of force as legally defensible, however strained those defenses sometimes appeared. The post-September 11 doctrines of preventive self-defense and the “unwilling or unable” standard were legally contested, but they were doctrines, attempts to operate within an interpretive framework rather than to discard it entirely.

In Venezuela, beginning in September 2025, the United States conducted lethal strikes against boats in the Caribbean, framing them as law enforcement operations to avoid triggering the War Powers Resolution. In January 2026, U.S. forces conducted a military raid into Caracas, killing dozens, capturing President Maduro, and announcing that the United States would “run” Venezuela until a new government was installed. The attempt to reframe a manifest use of armed force as a domestic law enforcement action is not merely legally incorrect; it is a deliberate attack on the conceptual architecture that makes international law legible.

The cumulative effect is the construction of a new operational norm, one in which the most militarily powerful state on earth reserves to itself the right to use lethal force anywhere, against anyone, for purposes it defines unilaterally, accountable to no external legal authority. This emerging pattern of blatant disregard of international law, if allowed to consolidate, will not remain the exclusive property of the United States. China, Russia, India, and regional powers are watching. Every precedent accepted becomes a precedent available. The erosion of the jus ad bellum (use of force) framework is a problem for every state that has historically relied on that framework for its own security.

The Regime Change Trap

Beyond the immediate illegality of the strikes, Operation Epic Fury has another grave problem: it has no plausible endpoint. With Khamenei dead and the Iranian command structure targeted, the power vacuum is not a side effect; it is the current situation. History provides no encouraging precedent.

The 2003 invasion of Iraq, similarly framed as targeting a dangerous regime with weapons of mass destruction, produced a multi-decade military presence, hundreds of thousands of civilian casualties, a regional security vacuum exploited by non-state actors, and a country that has never returned to the stability that even its imperfect prior condition represented. Libya in 2011 demonstrated that air operations designed to facilitate regime change produce state collapse, not democratic transition. These are empirically established outcomes.

Shajareh Tayyebeh school in Minab photos from Mehr (Abbas Zakeri, (CC BY 4.0))
Shajareh Tayyebeh school in Minab photos from Mehr (Abbas Zakeri, (CC BY 4.0))

Iran is a country of almost 90 million people, with a sophisticated military establishment, an extensive regional network of proxy forces, missile capabilities capable of striking U.S. bases throughout the Middle East, and a political culture that has historically rallied around national sovereignty under foreign pressure. The killing of Khamenei does not eliminate the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. It does not dissolve the Quds Force. It does not prevent successor leadership from emerging. It may, as multiple analysts have noted, accelerate Iran’s determination to acquire a nuclear deterrent, the very outcome the operation was ostensibly designed to prevent.

President Trump has urged Iranians to “take over your government,” a statement that confuses aspirational rhetoric with operational planning. There are no credible exile groups capable of assuming state functions in Iran. There is no post-conflict stabilization plan of record. Instead, there are many indicators of a prolonged military engagement, regional escalation, and the kind of unsustainable occupation that has defined the two-decade aftermath of every comparable U.S.-led regime-change operation. 

A protracted military presence in Iran, even through proxy arrangements, would constitute one of the largest strategic and humanitarian failures in the history of modern warfare, in a country whose geography, population, and political culture make external occupation far more complex than any preceding U.S. intervention. International law prohibits this operation not because lawyers are squeamish, but because the legal prohibition reflects hard-earned collective wisdom about what such operations produce.

International Law Ignorance as Policy

It would be a mistake to treat the current administration’s approach to international law as simply incompetent or uninformed. The pattern suggests something more deliberate: a calculated decision that the costs of legal compliance exceed its benefits, and that U.S. structural advantages, Security Council veto, dollar-denominated global finance, and unmatched military projection capacity all insulate Washington from meaningful accountability. This calculation may not be wrong in the short term. What it ignores is the systemic consequence.

There is a further assumption embedded in this posture that deserves direct challenge: that the chaos generated by unilateral force can be managed, contained, and ultimately directed toward preferred outcomes. This has not proved true. The history of U.S. military interventions is a history of second and third-order effects that escaped prediction, planning, and control; sectarian fragmentation in Iraq that persists two decades on, state collapse in Libya that turned the country into a transit hub for migration and arms across the Sahel, and a counter-terrorism campaign in Somalia now in its third decade with no measurable endpoint.

Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Delbert D. Black (DDG 119) fires a Tomahawk Land Attack Missile (TLAM) during operations in the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility, Mar. 2, 2026. Delbert D.
The USS Delbert D. Black destroyer fires a Tomahawk missile. (U.S. Navy Photo)

The assumption of controllability flatters the intervening power. It imagines that military and economic superiority translates into the capacity to shape political outcomes in deeply complex societies. It does not. Even the United States, with its unmatched alliance networks, its forward-deployed forces, its intelligence apparatus, and financial leverage, has repeatedly discovered that it can destroy a government far more efficiently than it can build a successor one. The chaos that follows the removal of even a repressive order does not wait for instructions. It does not respect the preferences of the power that unleashed it. And it does not remain contained within the borders of the state where it begins.

The international legal order, imperfect and unevenly enforced as it has always been, functions not because powerful states are compelled to obey it but because most states most of the time conclude that compliance serves their interests better than defection. The Charter system’s prohibition on the use of force exists because states recognized, after two world wars, that a world of unilateral military discretion produces catastrophic outcomes even for the powerful, and it persists because most states still recognize this truth. When the most powerful state in the system openly repudiates that framework, the signaling effect is global and immediate.

We are already observing the downstream consequences. Western partners have responded to Operation Epic Fury with studied ambiguity rather than unambiguous condemnation. France, Germany, and the United Kingdom issued a joint statement calling on Iran to negotiate, as if Iran were the aggressor, while carefully avoiding any characterization of U.S. and Israeli strikes as unlawful. Australia’s prime minister expressed support for the strikes as “acting to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.” These responses legitimate the legal theory underlying the strikes: that anticipated capability development, assessed by the striking state alone, constitutes sufficient grounds for military action against a country engaged in active negotiations. The logic, once accepted, has no limiting principle. It applies to any state that any powerful neighbor believes might at some future point develop threatening capabilities. Its adoption by Western governments is not a minor diplomatic concession. 

Inside the United States

The question that follows from legal analysis is not merely descriptive. It is operational: what can be done? The answer requires distinguishing between actions available within the United States and those available in the international system. Both tracks matter.

Within the United States, the War Powers Resolution of 1973 requires that presidentially initiated hostilities be reported to Congress within 48 hours and terminated within 60 days, absent explicit Congressional authorization. Operation Epic Fury has not been authorized by Congress. The administration’s prior pattern, invoking Article II Commander-in-Chief authority, is constitutionally contested and legally fragile. 

Congressional oversight mechanisms also provide near-term leverage. Appropriations authority gives Congress the power to prohibit the use of funds for specific military operations or for operations directed at the stated objective of regime change. The annual National Defense Authorization Act process, combined with supplemental appropriations, provides multiple leverage points. The New York City Bar Association has called explicitly on Congress to halt the administration’s violations of U.S. and international law in Venezuela; the same call applies with greater force to Iran.

Outside the United States

Following the Caracas raid of January 3, the Security Council convened in emergency session but produced nothing; no resolution was even tabled, because the structural reality of the U.S. veto foreclosed any attempt. This paralysis is itself the clearest evidence that the Security Council cannot currently function as a constraint on the United States.

The United Nations General Assembly retains authority under the Uniting for Peace procedure, established in 1950 for precisely the contingency in which Security Council paralysis prevents collective response to a threat to international peace and security, to convene emergency special sessions, pass resolutions characterizing the use of force, and authorize collective action short of binding enforcement. A General Assembly resolution characterizing the U.S.-Israeli strikes as a violation of Article 2(4) would carry significant normative weight, particularly if adopted by a large majority. 

States with sufficient institutional capacity should also consider referrals to the International Court of Justice (ICJ). While the Court cannot compel the United States to pay damages or halt operations; Nicaragua v. United States demonstrated in 1986 that a favorable ICJ judgment is unenforceable when the respondent holds a Security Council veto, an ICJ finding of illegality produces legal record of the highest authority, shapes subsequent customary law development, and imposes reputational costs that affect U.S. alliance relationships and diplomatic leverage across multiple issue areas.

The Responsibility to Respond Lawfully

This article has argued throughout for the legal constraint of U.S. military power. It is important to be precise about what that argument does not mean. It does not mean indifference to Iran’s internal repression. The Iranian government’s violent response to protests, its systemic violence against dissidents, and its documented human rights violations are real and serious. They generate legitimate humanitarian concern and justify a robust multilateral response.

What they do not generate is a unilateral legal entitlement for military intervention, including the intervention that has now occurred. Responsibility to Protect (R2P) was constructed within the institutional architecture of the Charter. It recognizes that sovereignty entails obligations, not only rights. But it equally and deliberately rejects the theory that individual states may determine unilaterally when intervention is justified. The moment humanitarian concern becomes accepted as a self-licensing basis for military action, it ceases to be a protection mechanism and becomes a standing authorization for the most powerful states to intervene wherever they characterize conditions as sufficiently dire.

International observers, United Nations mechanisms, and human rights organizations have documented patterns of lethal repression, arbitrary detention, and systemic violence against protestors and dissidents. Yet the existence of atrocity risk, however grave, does not create a unilateral legal entitlement for external military intervention.

The System Holds Only If States Make It Hold

Operation Epic Fury is not the end of international law. Breaches of law do not invalidate the law; if they did, no legal system could function. In 1986, the ICJ found the United States in violation of international law for its operations in Nicaragua. The United States vetoed Security Council enforcement. The law remained. What changed was the willingness of the international community to hold the line.

The current moment requires a similar choice. States that have spent decades insisting on their commitment to a rules-based international order must now decide whether that commitment is conditional on the identity of the violator. The ambiguous responses from London, Paris, Berlin, and Canberra suggest, so far, that it is. That decision, too, has consequences, not only for Iran, but for the precedents that will govern the next use of force, and the one after that.

Hossein Zohrevand for Tasnim News Agency
Damage on Tehran’s Ghandi Hospital after attack by the U.S. and Israel (Hossein Zohrevand for Tasnim News Agency)

The United States built much of the legal architecture now being dismantled. American lawyers, diplomats, and policymakers shaped the UN Charter, the Geneva Conventions, the Rome Statute, and the norms of customary international law that govern the use of force. The prohibition on the use of force was built on the ruins of the last catastrophe. The task now is to ensure it does not have to be rebuilt on the ruins of the next one.

Finally, there is a deeper conceptual error embedded in any sustained posture that disregards international order. National interest, properly understood, is not a free-standing concept that exists before and independent of international order. It acquires meaning and practical traction only within a system in which the interests of states are mutually recognized and can be pursued through stable frameworks of interaction. A state can have a foreign policy objective; it can identify resources it wishes to secure, alliances it wishes to maintain, and threats it wishes to neutralize. But the pursuit of those objectives, their translation into durable outcomes rather than momentary impositions, depends on a surrounding order that holds. When that order is replaced by an ad hoc revolving door of unilateral force and managed instability, national interest dissolves. The powerful state finds itself not in a world it controls but in a world it has made ungovernable, one in which its own preferences can no longer be reliably projected, its own commitments no longer credibly made, and its own security no longer structurally guaranteed.

Davit Khachatryan is an international lawyer and lecturer focusing on the intersection of armed conflict, emerging technologies, and international law.


Building Humane Foreign Policy On Moral Outrage

Andrew Leber is an assistant professor in the Department of Political Science and the Middle East & North African Studies Program at Tulane University, and was a cofounder of Fellow Travelers Blog

Since late 2010, U.S. policy towards the Middle East treated the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as something that could be safely left on the back burner while dealing with more pressing concerns – chiefly the desire to contain Iran’s nuclear program. Now events have come full circle, with Israel’s expansive response to Hamas’ October 7 attacks finally pulling the United States into a direct military engagement with Iran.

In condemning President Trump’s decision to send B-2 bombers halfway around the globe (without congressional approval), critics have understandably raised the specter of a protracted military engagement in the Middle East, akin to the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq.

War Powers Resolutions are a good start in avoiding U.S. involvement in the Israel-Iran war, but won’t be enough to de-escalate and build peace. 
To meaningfully constrain Israel and build peace, the United States should use the massive amount of arms sales and other forms of security assistance it provides annually as leverage.
Progressives have an advantage in adopting an “all-of-society” approach to forming and sustaining U.S. Middle East policy.
A sustainable policy towards the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will require shaping U.S. public opinion and cultivating a broader regard for the well-being of others.

Yet Trump’s actions also highlight the limits of a politics of restraint rooted in conserving American “blood and treasure” from foreign military adventures. While successive U.S. presidents have been constrained by the ultimate unpopularity of the Iraq War, the flip side of a historical memory overwhelmingly focused on U.S. (rather than Iraqi) casualties is a sense that almost any military action is permissible so long as it avoids committing ground forces.

“No ground forces were used in the strike,” Trump noted in his subsequent letter to Congress justifying the strikes. This rhetoric channels executive legal arguments across administrations and President Obama’s own emphasis on “no boots on the ground” in overseas military operations. Even during his first term, Trump embraced drone strikes and airpower as a way to project U.S. power abroad, in many ways a continuation — albeit with even less regard for civilian casualties — of Obama’s own “light-footprint” approach to military intervention.

Still, merely limiting the direct risks to U.S. forces is no recipe for peace or human well-being, as the Obama administration found in facilitating a Saudi-led military intervention. Even in the absence of broader military commitments, present U.S. support for Israel’s “might makes right” foreign policy poses enormous reputational and material risks to the United States.

Only concerted efforts to build popular concern for the shared humanity of others, as happened in limiting U.S. support for military intervention in Yemen, will lay the groundwork for regional peace that is more than a pause between fighting. The alternative is a continuation of the Global War on Terror: carrying out (or otherwise facilitating) attacks on actors, organizations, or even states deemed threatening to the United States and its partners, with little in the way of popular or congressional oversight.

The Yemen-War Model

The progressive foreign policy movement already has experience addressing the moral hazard of U.S. security commitments in the Middle East, namely Saudi Arabia’s protracted military intervention in Yemen. There, as with Israel, sources of leverage were clear: arms sales that sustained the Saudi war effort and diplomatic cover that justified the intervention in terms of Saudi national security concerns.

As with Israel’s war in Gaza (albeit on a much smaller scale), the United States was perceived as facilitating mass suffering by providing Saudi Arabia with material and moral support for sustained attacks on Houthi forces in Yemen. U.S. leverage was also understood as critical to restraining Saudi Arabia given the absolute monarchy’s suppression of any domestic dissent. While Israel is far more open to domestic dissent than the Kingdom neither criticism by prominent former officials nor protests by the families of Israeli hostages in Gaza has meaningfully restrained Prime Minister Netanyahu in Gaza. An overwhelming majority of Jewish Israelis back the latest attack on Iran, even if some quibble with the timing. Additionally, free speech within Israel itself is under threat, with state raids on bookstores in East Jerusalem, sanctioning Israeli media critical of government actions in Gaza, and stifling of dissent within the Israeli armed forces itself. 

Moral outrage over the war’s humanitarian toll and Saudi Arabia’s humanitarian abuses, not rational cost-benefit analysis, ultimately pushed members of Congress – including some Republicans – to pass successive War-Powers resolutions and take other legislative action aimed at curtailing U.S. security support for Saudi Arabia in Yemen and blocking U.S. arms sales to the kingdom. This moral outrage did not appear overnight, but was actively built by a broad coalition of activists, and turbo-charged by Saudi Arabia’s assassination of media figure Jamal Khashoggi. 

While the Trump administration ultimately overrode Congress in direct terms, and maintained most arms sales to Saudi Arabia, senior officials nevertheless began to push Saudi and other Gulf leaders toward peace talks. Joe Biden in turn made ending support for the Saudi intervention part of his presidential campaign, and empowered a special envoy to seek a diplomatic solution to the conflict in 2021. (The Biden administration continued security coordination with Saudi Arabia, however, leaving its Yemen policy open to charges of being both too hawkish and too dove-ish.) Restraint ultimately worked in Saudi Arabia’s favor as well, with a de facto truce by 2022 insulating the kingdom from the Houthi force’s efforts to pressure Israel amid the ongoing Gaza war.

Of course, any restraint of Saudi Arabia was (in retrospect) playing on “easy mode.” Saudi Arabia has little domestic constituency in the United States, at least outside of the Beltway, and to the extent that Americans have strong feelings about the kingdom they tend to be negative. Even then, any “restraint” of Saudi military activities by the United States has been partial at best and highly contingent on other U.S. policy priorities. 

Israel, by contrast, is overwhelmingly supported by one half of the United States’ two-party political scene, and by a fiercely devoted constituency within the Democratic Party’s supporters as well. While negative U.S. views of Israel are on the rise, it is hard to imagine a presidential candidate for either party labelling the country a “pariah” on the campaign trail anytime soon.

What is to be done?

In the near term, War-Powers legislation – as recently attempted by Tim Kaine in the Senate, and proposed by various members in the House – is the clearest tool for weighing in on the Executive’s opaque decision-making. It is good for Congress to flex its oversight muscles, for individuals and advocacy organizations to support these efforts, and to remind the President and security partners overseas of the domestic fallout of military action abroad.

Yet even within the Democratic Party, leaders struggle to meaningfully criticize Israeli actions – while drawing distinctions regarding committing U.S. forces – while other members openly long for regime change in Iran. It will require a far more concerted effort to demilitarize U.S. policy towards the Middle East at the strategic level, and to ensure that future administrations do not simply shunt the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to the back burner once more.

At the local and state level, this means building and maintaining spaces to talk about Israel, Palestine, and the U.S. role in this long-running conflict – something that can no longer be taken for granted, even on private university campuses. It in turn means supporting political candidates who oppose a “Palestine exception” to free speech, while recognizing practical limits on the type and tenor of critiques they make of Israel.

In terms of shaping mass attitudes, it means integrating demands for Palestinian liberation into broader advocacy of a rights-based internationalism – as many pro-Palestinian advocacy organizations across the United States have already done.

Progressives recognize the need to build popular buy-in to global norms long taken for granted in foreign policymaking, from respect for international humanitarian law to the belief that the United States is safer when it cares for the well-being of others. The best counter to charges that U.S. policy singles out Israel for criticism – beyond noting the fact that few countries receive the same level of U.S. diplomatic and military support – is to demand that the same standards apply to Emirati involvement in Sudan’s civil war, or to our own country’s treatment of resident non-citizens.

When it comes to Israel per se, this means continuing to convey the risks of underwriting a “might makes right” approach to regional security. In engaging persuadable U.S. supporters of Israel, it means taking seriously concerns about rising antisemitism while continuing the slow, steady work of insisting that the state of Israel be judged by its actions as a state.

And at the level of national policy, it means forcing elected and appointed officials to recognize that U.S. ties to any security partner cannot take the form of writing blank checks for states bent on exacerbating human suffering – whatever their justifications. For those willing to listen, this can take the form of advocacy; for those unwilling, this should take the form of primarying them or, for appointees, their patrons.

It also means accepting, as both the Biden and now the Trump administrations have found, that Israeli war crimes in Gaza, and the fundamental injustice towards Palestinians of Israel’s one-state reality, cannot be walled off from more “strategic” considerations of the U.S. national interest rooted in avoiding costly interstate conflict.

The Perils of a Victory over Iran

Nicholas Noe is the director of the Beirut Exchange Foundation and co-founder of Mideastwire.com

Even if Israel and its allies achieve a decisive military defeat of  the Islamic Republic of Iran in the coming period—crushing its armed forces, scattering its leadership, and dismantling its nuclear program—the long-term consequences of such a triumph will be deeply corrosive and dangerous. Of course, the short-term gains of such a campaign against the last significant regional opposition to U.S.-Israeli power will be delicious for many in Washington and Tel Aviv who have spent 35 years agitating for war against the Islamic Republic. It will be hailed as definitive proof that brute strength and technological superiority are indeed adequate tools for reshaping global politics. 

But this is exactly where the chief danger lies: this kind of victory, rather than securing lasting peace or stability, will usher in a far more dangerous world order defined overwhelmingly by “might makes right” and the wholesale abandonment of international norms.

Might Makes Right: From Exception to Rule

A successful campaign against Iran would be taken as final vindication by the interventionist camp in the United States and Israel. Their long-standing argument—that problems in the Middle East can and should be solved through overwhelming military force (with or without nation-building)—would gain tremendous credibility. Any blowback, if it did not materialize quickly or dramatically, would be dismissed as irrelevant. Predictions about the dangers of failed states would be parried by calls to just wall off or “Golden Dome” oneself and allies, with further brutality exercised at the gates as needed. 

The lesson would be clear: force works, and those with unmatched capabilities should not hesitate to use them.

This shift is not likely to remain limited to the Middle East. A perceived success in Iran would become a century-defining precedent, eliminating what little remains of the post-WWII consensus that outlawed wars of aggression and emphasized collective security. International norms would be seen as entirely optional—quaint relics rather than guardrails essential for preventing suffering and chaos.

The U.S., already prone to bypassing multilateral mechanisms when convenient well before Donald Trump, would feel even less bound by diplomatic process or the logic of compromise. Israel, too, would be further empowered in its belief that its security lies not in negotiation or compromise, but only in permanent technological superiority and deterrence through mass or targeted destruction.

Blowback Deferred, Restraint Discredited

One of the central claims of those who advocate for greater restraint in foreign policy—a camp I have long belonged to—is that wars of choice tend to carry hidden, long-term costs that ultimately outweigh the short-term gains. These include insurgency, regional destabilization, terrorism, and the erosion of democratic institutions at home. The Iraq War was, and remains, the centerpiece of our argument. Initially declared a success following “Shock and Awe,” it led to multiple dimensions of disaster over time. Yet interventionists continue to claim that the war was lost not because it was illegitimate or ill-conceived, but because the U.S. lacked the will to see it through – especially “all the way” to Tehran. A similar narrative will likely develop post-Iran, should “Mission Accomplished” be declared: overwhelming force finally proved its utility, and past failures were merely a matter of poor execution and lack of will.

This narrative would empower a new era of interventionism. With restraint seemingly discredited and its often vague warnings relegated to the long term, the threshold for uses of force would drop even further. The appetite for war would grow until the interventionist machine finally encounters an adversary, or a combination of adversaries, capable of catastrophic retaliation. This capacity for catastrophe would most likely come in the form of a nuclear arsenal, which in every country that maintains such weapons would be paired with hard limits beyond which conventional war risks thermonuclear devastation.

Accelerating a Global Arms Race

Perhaps the most predictable consequence of an Iran defeat is the acceleration of a global arms race, particularly around nuclear weapons. Iran, a relatively large and sophisticated regional actor, has attempted to deter attack by developing nuclear capabilities, apparently below the threshold of actual weapons for now. If that deterrent fails and Iran’s nuclear program is dismantled, the signal to other regimes will be unmistakable: the only way to ensure your sovereignty in a U.S.-Israeli-dominated world is through acquiring nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction (WMD).

This logic has already played out, but to a far lesser extent. Libya gave up its WMD programs in 2003 only to see its regime violently overthrown. North Korea took the opposite path, developing a credible nuclear deterrent, and as a result has remained largely immune from foreign intervention. After Iran, more states will very likely pursue this path, viewing international treaties and inspections as traps rather than protections.

The risk is not just nuclear proliferation, but the normalization of preventive military action against non-nuclear states. The incentive structure becomes perverse: develop nuclear weapons quickly or risk regime change. The end result is a world more dangerous, more armed, and more unstable.

Authoritarianism at Home

The idea that success abroad through overwhelming force won’t impact the home front is a dangerous illusion. When a nation continually uses brute power to achieve its aims internationally, that logic inevitably seeps into domestic politics. The militarization of policing, the expansion of executive power, the erosion of civil liberties—all of these have already been seen in the U.S. after almost two and a half decades of the Global War on Terror we launched following the 9/11 terrorist attacks. The past few months in the U.S. have only underscored the point with greater clarity.

A deconstruction of Iran’s ability and desire to exercise violence outside the framework of international law would further erode democratic norms. Presidents who view themselves as uniquely empowered to act without accountability abroad often bring that mindset home. We see this in the growing embrace of authoritarian rhetoric, the normalization of surveillance, and the dismissal of dissent as weakness or treason, both at home and abroad.

In Israel, the same dynamic could accelerate ongoing efforts to limit judicial oversight, marginalize minority voices, entrench ethnonationalism and, at the same time, move more decisively forward with plans to forcibly displace millions of Palestinians. The culture of military supremacy abroad will only embolden illiberal, illegal and immoral tendencies within.

Unresolved Grievances, New Enemies

The Iranian government’s behavior, however malign one views it, is largely anchored on a long history of regional dynamics, injustice and security concerns. Crushing the Iranian regime will not eliminate some of the key reasons why it acted aggressively in the first place. On the contrary, it will embitter many and make reconciliation far more difficult than the path of mutual compromise, addressing underlying grievances and diplomacy. It will also very likely create new, more determined and capable enemies in the process.

We’ve seen this before. As close as Israel or the U.S. believes it is to vanquishing enemies, new ones are created over time as long as the main factors driving opposition and anger remain.

In 2000, Israel missed a historic opportunity to strike a deal with Syria that would have returned the Golan Heights in exchange for peace and the disarmament of Hezbollah. After negotiations collapsed when Israel refused to return the Golan in its entirety, Hezbollah claimed victory for Israel’s unilateral withdrawal from Lebanon. In doing so, Israel strengthened the logic of armed resistance and perpetuated conflict. Twenty-four years later, Israel applied massive force to momentarily cow Hezbollah, which had grown to become the most powerful non-state actor in the world. Here, too, restrainers seem to have lost the argument in the short term. But the organization is, by most accounts, rebuilding. It won recent local elections and has only increased its motivating grievances vis-à-vis Israel. It is learning from its military and security mistakes and lies in wait for an opportune moment to exacerbate U.S. and Israeli moments of weakness, whenever or however they come to pass.  

Perhaps most importantly, Israel vanquished the PLO only to give rise to Hamas. Throughout, it has rejected the Arab Peace Initiative, which offers full normalization in exchange for a just resolution to the Palestinian issue. Rather than accept compromise and concede occupied territory for a Palestinian state, Israeli leaders have bet on massive force and technological superiority. But as long as core grievances remain unaddressed—the occupation of Palestinian territories, the displacement of refugees, the lack of political rights—no amount of bombing campaigns will bring lasting peace. New, more capable enemies in Palestine, as in Lebanon and the wider Middle East, are very likely being created every day in the rubble of what many observers now consider to be outright genocide.        

  

The Challenge to Restraint

But all of this lies in the longer term and is difficult to prove right now. If Iran falls with minimal immediate blowback, the interventionist camp will have immediate proof of concept that the real problem with past wars was that they were too limited, too cautious, too concerned about failed states or too respectful of international law.

This will not just be a tactical shift. It will represent a fundamental change nearly impossible to put back in the proverbial bottle. Adherence to international law will be cast as outdated, ineffective, even dangerous. The pro-diplomacy worldview—that peace and stability come from mutual respect, compromise, and adherence to rules—will be sidelined by a new consensus that sees raw power as its own justification.

But history teaches that such a worldview cannot endure. Sooner or later, even the most powerful actors face adversaries they cannot crush. The more one relies on force alone, the more brittle one’s position becomes. A temporary triumph over Iran may feel like vindication for hawks, but it is likely to be the beginning of a far more dangerous period.

It is not too late to choose another path. Instead of war, the U.S. and Israel could return to diplomacy. Instead of domination, they could pursue mutual concessions that address root grievances. This includes accepting a viable Palestinian state, negotiating regional security arrangements, and ending the reliance on force as the first resort.

The lesson of the last two decades is not that force doesn’t matter—but that it is insufficient. Real security comes not from domination, but from legitimacy. And legitimacy cannot be won on the battlefield alone.

The Illusion of Opportunity in Attacking Iran

Sina Toossi is a senior nonresident fellow at the Center for International Policy.

In the wake of a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, the Middle East stands at a critical juncture. The recent agreement, brokered with the involvement of both the outgoing and incoming US administrations, has halted hostilities for now, but its durability remains uncertain. Amid this tenuous peace, Israeli leaders, emboldened by President-elect Donald Trump’s historically supportive stance, reportedly see a prime opportunity to push for direct war against Iran—a goal Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has pursued for decades.

Exacerbating these tensions is the possibility of Trump doubling down on his “maximum pressure” campaign against Tehran, which dismantled the Obama-era nuclear deal and inflicted crippling sanctions on Iran’s economy. Reports from The Wall Street Journal reveal Trump is even weighing military strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Yet, in his inaugural address, Trump remarked, “We will measure our success not only by the battles we win, but also by the wars that we end, and perhaps most importantly, the wars we never get into.” This juxtaposition highlights a critical decision between diplomatic de-escalation and military action

Trump would be wise to pursue diplomacy. Granting Netanyahu the U.S.’s backing for such a conflict would further destabilize the region, heighten already white-hot anti-American sentiment, and derail Trump’s broader agenda. For Iran hawks, these shifting circumstances may seem like the ideal moment to act, but such enthusiasm dangerously ignores the lessons of Israel’s recent wars and the complexities of the region’s current security landscape. If Israel failed to decisively defeat a smaller non-state adversary like Hezbollah, how could it expect success against a well-fortified state like Iran? A preemptive strike would almost certainly provoke massive retaliation, fail to topple the Islamic Republic, and risk igniting a far-reaching, devastating conflict.

Instead of courting disaster, U.S. and Israeli policymakers should seize the moment to pursue diplomacy. Renewed negotiations and a verifiable nuclear agreement could deliver real security while steering the region away from catastrophic war.

Hezbollah’s Survival as a Cautionary Tale

Advocates of a strike on Iran often overlook a critical lesson from Israel’s recent conflict with Hezbollah: even with a relentless military campaign, Israel failed to decisively neutralize a much smaller non-state adversary. Over months of intense fighting in Lebanon, Israel launched an extensive air assault and a punishing ground invasion aimed at crippling Hezbollah’s arsenal. While Hezbollah suffered significant losses, including the assassination of its leader Hassan Nasrallah and senior commanders, its ability to strike Israel was not eliminated. Throughout the bombardment, the group continued firing rockets, missiles, and drones deep into Israeli territory. Major population centers, including Tel Aviv, were hit just days before the ceasefire, causing casualties, widespread displacement, and severe economic and psychological insecurity.  

This experience offers two key lessons for policymakers. First, Israeli military superiority is not the absolute guarantee of success it is often assumed to be. Second, if Israel struggled to decisively defeat Hezbollah, a non-state militia, it is unrealistic to expect a knockout blow against a fortified state like Iran. Iran’s defense systems, nuclear facilities, and missile and drone stockpiles are far more robust and dispersed. Recent history underscores that a swift, clean military solution is less a viable strategy and more a dangerous illusion.

Iran’s Retaliatory Capabilities and the Costs of Escalation

Critics of diplomacy also often underestimate Iran’s ability to defend itself and respond effectively to an attack—a miscalculation fraught with danger. Over the past year, the back-and-forth strikes between Iran and Israel have vividly demonstrated Tehran’s growing military capabilities and its capacity for retaliation. For instance, on October 1, Iran launched a coordinated missile and drone attack on Israel, bypassing advanced Israeli air defenses and inflicting both material damage and insecurity. In response, Israel struck back on October 27, targeting Iran’s Russian-made S-300 air defense systems, ballistic missile production facilities, and solid fuel manufacturing infrastructure for long-range missiles.

Hawks portray the Israeli strike as a decisive blow, leaving Iran vulnerable to a low-cost U.S. or Israeli attack. Yet even Israeli officials disagree. The Nagel Committee in Israel recently confirmed that the country does not have the capability to launch a decisive attack on Iran’s military and nuclear facilities without U.S. support. Former IDF spokesperson and air defense commander Ran Kochav reinforced this reality, cautioning, “I would cautiously say they [Iran] still have strength left; it’s not as if this morning they have no air defense system at all and are completely exposed.” Retired Major General Yaakov Amidror warned an attack without U.S. coordination would risk severe retaliation requiring American intervention.

Despite Israel’s recent attack, many of Iran’s air defenses remain intact, bolstered by advanced systems reverse-engineered from Russian, Chinese, and U.S. technology. In recent military drills, Tehran has showcased its readiness, simulating responses to airstrikes and unveiling new underground “missile cities” alongside advanced drones and missiles. These moves send a clear signal: Iran is prepared to retaliate forcefully against any attack.

A large-scale assault on Iran’s nuclear facilities would all but guarantee a massive retaliatory campaign—one that could escalate beyond Israel’s borders to U.S. forces and partners in the region. At best, military strikes might set Iran’s nuclear timeline back by a few years. But at worst, such an action would ignite a far-reaching conflict that compromises energy security, endangers U.S. personnel, undermines regional stability, and strains diplomatic ties with allies who have no appetite for another protracted conflict in the Middle East.

Why a Foreign Attack Won’t Topple the Islamic Republic

A persistent idea among hawkish policymakers is that a foreign military strike could trigger the collapse of the Islamic Republic. But this belief overlooks a powerful force within Iran: nationalism. History shows that foreign aggression tends to unite Iranians against the invader, fostering a sense of shared solidarity that could bolster, rather than weaken, the ruling theocracy.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long attempted to stoke dissent within Iran, even addressing Iranians directly multiple times in recent months to portray himself as some sort of savior against their repressive government. However, the aftermath of Israel’s October strike on Iran reveals the futility of this strategy. Instead of sparking mass opposition to the government, the attack plunged ordinary Iranians into fear and uncertainty. Civil society leaders and groups, pro-democracy activists, and political prisoners alike issued stark warnings: war would derail prospects for democratic change, not hasten them. 

The reaction from everyday Iranians was equally telling. Many took to the streets—not in protest against the regime, but to mourn the soldiers killed in the assault. These moments of collective grief underscored a broader truth: foreign attacks are broadly seen as assaults on the nation itself, not just its government.

Far from weakening the Islamic Republic, a military campaign is likely to strengthen its hold, at least in the short term, and deepen the challenges faced by those fighting for a freer and more democratic Iran. The lesson for policymakers? Toppling the regime from the outside isn’t just wishful thinking—it’s counterproductive.

A Better Path Forward: Diplomacy and a Deal  

With the risks clear, the pressing question remains: How can policymakers prevent Iran’s nuclear program from advancing while avoiding a devastating regional war? The answer lies in reinvigorated diplomacy.  

The 2015 nuclear deal provided a proven framework for freezing and even rolling back key elements of Iran’s nuclear program. Next October, the UN sanctions “snapback” mechanism—a crucial part of that deal—expires, and if triggered by France, Germany, and the UK, it would automatically reinstate sanctions. Iran has warned that such a move would force it out of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), destroying remaining safeguards and leaving diplomacy in tatters.

This looming deadline demands urgent action. If the Europeans trigger snapback, the reimposition of UN sanctions and Iran leaving the NPT would dramatically increase tensions and make future negotiations infinitely harder. Policymakers must prevent this domino effect by re-engaging diplomatically now.

Diplomacy offers tangible, achievable benefits that make it the most viable path forward. A revived or updated nuclear deal can reimpose verifiable restrictions and intrusive inspections on Iran’s nuclear program, significantly hindering any covert pursuit of a nuclear weapon. It also creates critical channels of communication that can help address broader regional flashpoints, reducing the risks of miscalculation and violent escalation. Furthermore, by incorporating economic incentives, diplomacy has the potential to empower civil society within Iran over time, avoiding the backlash and rally-around-the-flag effects that often result from military action or coercive measures.

Policymakers in the U.S. and Europe have a narrow but critical window to prioritize negotiations. Restoring or updating a nuclear deal—while leveraging the pressure of sanctions and Iran’s own economic vulnerabilities—offers the best path to curbing Tehran’s nuclear ambitions without plunging the region into chaos.

Defense Bill Breakdown: Key Military Aid Issues in the FY 2017 National Defense Authorization Act

The National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2017 seeks to make numerous changes to existing Department of Defense security assistance policy and authorities. This infographic attempts to show you the important differences between the House, Senate, and Conference versions. Portions of the NDAA seek to improve accountability and transparency by requiring more detailed annual reports on security assistance initiatives.